Power outages, a failing economy—it’s hard to imagine a nation once thriving in medical technology facing such struggles. While people often think of Venezuela, it’s actually Cuba that is facing a significant crisis.
As Venezuela’s situation worsens, Cuba is experiencing its own, albeit less visible, but equally troubling decline just a stone’s throw from Florida. The political theater may not be grand, but the implications are grave. If Venezuela is on the brink, Cuba appears to be unraveling.
On September 10th, Cuba’s entire power grid went down, leaving nearly 10 million in darkness. This incident marked the fourth major blackout in under a year. Even before that, power outages had become commonplace. Authorities pointed fingers at malfunctioning equipment, while Cubans showed their frustration toward the government.
The energy system is in disrepair, a jumble of outdated facilities and quick fixes. Over the last 14 months, I’ve personally witnessed numerous outages that have hit the nation hard. Power plants have been brought to their knees by years of neglect and the reliance on low-quality crude oil. With tightened U.S. sanctions against Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela, the flow of oil to Cuba has become erratic.
Shipments from Venezuela—a vital resource for Cuba for the past two decades—have seen drastic fluctuations, sometimes dipping under 10,000 barrels a day. Even Mexican assistance is inconsistent. This instability means that power plants often struggle to function. In some areas, residents are reduced to cooking by candlelight, charging their phones whenever they can, and sleeping on roofs to escape the oppressive heat.
A plummeting economy complicates daily life. The average state salary sits at under $20 a month, hardly enough for basic needs. Fuel is scarce and prohibitively expensive, pushing many in rural areas to use bicycles or horse-drawn carriages rather than cars. Tourism, which once fueled economic growth, has drastically declined, dropping more than half over the past decade. Even in relatively affluent areas of Havana, people now face frequent blackouts, empty store shelves, and a rise in petty crime.
The peso’s value has tumbled, with street rates nearing 400 to the dollar—an unprecedented low. Basic goods are becoming increasingly costly, while stores selling imported items demand foreign currency that most Cubans simply can’t access. This has led to a divided economy reminiscent of Venezuela’s inflation woes, where who has dollars determines who eats well versus poorly.
On a different note, Cuba’s famed sugar industry is facing significant declines. This year’s crop is projected to hit a record low, the worst since the 1800s. Once a major agricultural exporter, Cuba now finds itself importing raw sugar. The downturn in this sector has not only crippled exports but also left rural workers unemployed.
The ramifications extend far beyond finances: around 2 million Cubans—almost 20 percent of the population—have left in the last four years. This brain drain has led to shortages of skilled labor in hospitals, schools, and small businesses. The scattered population lacks unity, classrooms are half-empty, and innovative efforts have dwindled. What some may view as a pressure relief for the regime actually undercuts the nation’s vitality.
The parallels to Venezuela are striking. Both governments prioritize control over their citizens’ prosperity. They rely heavily on external resources like oil, loans, and remittances, which are increasingly slipping away. Whenever policies falter, dissent is swiftly silenced. Venezuela’s downward spiral has hollowed out its former wealth; Cuba is following a similar path but lacks the oil revenue to cushion the blow.
The historical ties between Cuba and Venezuela run deep, evolving beyond mere transactions over time. They have long portrayed themselves as ideological allies against American intervention, dating back to the rise of Hugo Chavez in 1999, who greatly admired Fidel Castro. Cuba provided personnel, while Venezuela supplied oil. Today, their relationship is strained, each remaining a fading support for the other amid declining circumstances.
However, that connection is starting to weaken. Oil exports from Venezuela to Cuba have dramatically decreased, despite Havana still supporting Maduro’s regime. Each government is now propping the other up with dwindling resources—two exhausted regimes cllutching to a fading revolutionary dream.
In both regions, intimidation has taken the place of persuasion. Journalists are silenced, dissenters face threats, and everyday citizens voice their discontent quietly. Formerly robust social programs like health care and education are barely recognizable today. The country grapples with schools void of teachers, hospitals needing supplies, and clinics lacking power.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is re-entering the Caribbean in a significant way, with warships patrolling the Venezuelan coast to disrupt suspected drug trafficking. This act serves as a reminder of pressure being applied to Maduro’s regime.
Cuban dissident Oscar Bisse argues that both nations are entangled in their struggles. “Cuba and Venezuela function as twin dictatorships, each offering support through corruption and international crime,” he explains. “The Castro regime has effectively commandeered Venezuela’s political and military apparatus for oppressive activities and drug trafficking to the United States.”
Despite President Miguel Diaz-Canel being the official leader of Cuba, real political power largely remains with a small group of aging revolutionaries, including the 93-year-old Raúl Castro. The decision-making process is less about institutions and more about personal connections; the guiding principle seems to be preservation rather than renewal. Billboards across the island still proclaim messages about “Continuation.” For many Cubans, this is more about ongoing constraints than stability.
It’s essential to note the distinctions as well. While Cuba may not be mimicking Venezuela precisely, the warning signs are becoming more pronounced. The purchasing power of the peso diminishes daily. Factories are silent. Young people are leaving. The very foundations supporting socialism in Cuba seem poised for collapse.
While Venezuela’s collapse captures most headlines, Cuba’s gradual decline could lead to even more significant repercussions. Just 90 miles from Florida, this failing state may spark a new mass immigration wave, attract rival powers to the region, and challenge U.S. resolve. The flickering lights of Havana could serve as the latest wake-up call across the hemisphere.
