The average tax refund this season has increased by 14.2% compared to the same period last year, based on initial filing data from the IRS.
As of February 13, individual filers received an average refund of $2,476, a rise from $2,169 from the previous year. This data reflects cumulative statistics since the tax season began on January 26.
According to an IRS announcement, the overall refunds have reached around $32 billion, marking an 8.3% increase from 2025. However, there was a 2.6% drop in the total number of applications submitted.
Why might the average tax refund see an increase?
As midterm elections loom, both the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans are considering the impact of President Trump’s major tax legislation on refunds this season.
In a recent post, President Trump claimed that his tax refund is “significantly higher than it’s ever been,” suggesting that some taxpayers could see returns exceeding 20%. However, it’s unclear what specific estimates he was alluding to, as the White House hasn’t clarified this point.
Recently, on February 13, Treasury Secretary and Acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent stated on CNBC that the current average tax refund has climbed by 22%. The details of his statement, though, such as which comparison period he referred to, remain vague, especially since the IRS disclosed a more modest increase of 10.9% later that same day.
Andrew Lautz, tax policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center, noted that while refunds have gone up and meet expectations for the tax filing season, it’s too early to draw firm conclusions about overall trends in filing data.
Typically, the IRS starts processing payments around mid-February, especially for those qualifying for the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Supplemental Child Tax Credit. Further details regarding filing data should emerge by February 20, with another IRS update expected on February 27.
