According to a prominent defense expert, Iran is in the process of developing a distributed drone warfare capability within the confines of a Tehran apartment building, utilizing inexpensive technology procured from China. Cameron Chell has noted that this evolving system, centered around first-person view (FPV) drones, poses a significant threat not just in the Middle East but potentially also to the U.S. mainland. “FPV is essentially Iran’s last-ditch effort; it’s very hard to defend against, incredibly effective, and can be operated without a centralized command,” Chell mentioned.
He elaborated that various groups, including military factions and militias in Iran, could either create or acquire their own FPV drones for attacks. There’s a potential for Iran to mass-produce over 100,000 FPV units monthly in the longer term, as these militias or sleeper cells in every province are likely capable of assembling the necessary equipment.
Warnings from Chell come in light of recent events in Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias have increasingly employed FPV drones against targets like Baghdad International Airport. Footage purportedly shows an FPV drone striking a U.S. Black Hawk helicopter and hitting a radar unit stationed at the same location.
“FPV is a critical focus for Iran, which we believe is manufacturing these drones by importing parts from China, managing to bypass border controls fairly easily,” he stated.
Chell cautioned that Iran’s strategy mirrors that observed in Ukraine, where decentralized drone production is thriving. He foresees a burgeoning underground industry of FPV drone manufacturing within Iran, likely taking place in basements and makeshift assembly lines. “It seems plausible that both China and Russia are sending components to support the establishment of these drone manufacturing capabilities,” he added.
Concerns extend beyond foreign conflicts, especially considering that approximately 1,500 Iranians have been intercepted at the U.S. border since the Biden administration took office. Authorities have raised alarms about potential sleeper cells that could operate unnoticed.
During a statement, former President Trump highlighted the challenges associated with the current border policy, noting a significant influx of people entering through what he referred to as the “stupid open border campaign.” “We know where most of them are,” he claimed.
Chell emphasized that this marks the emergence of asymmetric warfare strategies that Iran may employ against both neighboring nations and U.S. assets, as well as on American soil. He questioned when a potentially large-scale and sophisticated FPV assault might occur in the U.S., stressing that within eight months, Iran is likely to deploy advanced drones capable of countering some electronic jamming systems. Tactics involving swarming and deception may soon follow.
He concluded, “It will be immensely challenging for the U.S. to dismantle a small drone factory hidden within a civilian apartment complex, and disrupting the supply chain poses its own difficulties.” He acknowledged that securing a reliable supply chain from China will be crucial for Iran to develop a capability for precision mass production, a process that may only prolong the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States.
