If President Joe Biden has any advantage heading into the 2024 presidential election, it’s that former President Donald Trump’s legal costs and contested primary elections are putting a significant strain on the Trump campaign’s finances. .
Indeed, money plays an increasingly important role in political campaigns, especially presidential elections, and both Trump and Biden face very similar challenges, albeit for different reasons and to different degrees.While both are up few He has more money than past candidates, and while both have spent significantly, only Trump has to split his spending between political spending and rapidly mounting legal costs.
Despite the alarming poll numbers, face to face Showdown with Trump — Biden leads 44% to 46%, according to RealClearPolitics average — and only 40 percent of Americans approve Mr. Biden and his various campaign departments will have until the end of January to report on Mr. Biden’s work performance. accumulated It has $130 million in cash and raised $42 million last month alone, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Additionally, 97% of all Biden donations have come from donors who gave less than $200, with more than 420,000 individual donors giving in January alone, giving Biden the ability to rely on small amounts. Grassroots support is highlighted.
Indeed, Biden’s numbers are staggering compared to the Trump campaign, which was previously considered a fundraising juggernaut. $774 million In the 2020 cycle.But today, according to FEC filings, Trump has approx. $30.5 million The cash on hand was dire, if not extremely worrying. $13.8 million Over the last month.
Even worse, the Trump camp Spent It raised just under $9 million, nearly $3 million more than it raised in January, but continued spending on the Republican primary and mounting legal costs meant spending more than $11 million. Ta.
Notably, the Trump campaign’s biggest expense in the past two months was $4.7 million In Iowa and New Hampshire, he fended off primary challenges from Nikki Haley.Not far behind, Trump-linked PACs also made contributions. $2.9 million The former president’s legal fees will need to be paid in January alone.
These rising costs come at the same time as Trump’s personal fortune takes a big hit.In recent weeks, he has lost two civil cases for fraud and defamation, amounting to $438 million Under campaign finance laws, penalties have been imposed that prohibit payment using campaign funds.
Somewhat ironically, Nikki Haley has been a blessing to the Democratic Party because she continues to maintain a deep core agenda. Haley has recently criticized Trump.as bloomberg reporther Stand for America Fund Inc. super PAC raised $50.1 million in the final six months of 2023, $5 million more than the super PAC supporting the former president.
So why isn’t Biden running away from this race? While Biden hasn’t been inundated with the legal bills plaguing the Trump campaign, his spending on campaign ads reflects the candidate’s struggle to find an effective message.
Over the past six months, Biden’s campaign apparatus has 20 million dollars As for advertising in battleground states, it doesn’t seem to be helping him, at least when it comes to his poll numbers.
Trump appears to be maintaining, if not expanding, his lead in key battleground states.Former president leads Biden nevada (49 to 40 percent); georgia (49-42 percent); arizona (47-42 percent) and michigan (47-42 percent); wisconsin and pennsylvania According to RealClearPolitics averages for these states, they are virtually tied.
Additionally, following the case of Special Counsel Robert Hur, report This raised questions about Biden’s mental health, with nearly 8 in 10 (78%) registered voters in the latest Marquette University law saying Biden is “too old.” The Biden campaign’s spending appears to have been wasted. poll.
Ignoring the influence of money on voter preferences, Biden’s fundraising strategy from a purely cash perspective appears to be working, at least for now. But Trump’s fundraising ability should not be underestimated. In the final month of the 2020 campaign, Trump condemned During the same period, Biden won by $71 million, raising $91.5 million from grassroots donors alone.
The good news for Biden is that Trump has spent tens of millions of dollars on legal fees and shows no signs of slowing down in 2024. His personal assets have been and will continue to be under significant pressure due to the Carroll defamation judgment and the new ruling.york city civil fraud finesNot to mention President Trump, criminal trialGeorgia and Washington DC.
In other words, as November approaches, President Trump is likely to feel the economic impact of trying to conduct a presidential campaign while diverting much-needed resources to defending himself from more threats. expensive. 90 felonies.
And while it’s clear that his supporters are passionate and committed, it remains to be seen how much financial staying power his most loyal donors have left, or whether the Republican primary is officially over. It remains to be seen whether the big donors will come back as supporters later on.
To be clear, money is definitely important, but this doesn’t mean Trump should be excluded. In fact, quite the opposite. Trump has a lead in the polls and won’t have to spend on Haley if she inevitably drops out, and there is no shortage of creative ways to raise big money.399 They even release dollar branded products. sneakers.
Still, there are legitimate questions about whether President Trump’s strategy of using campaign funds to cover mounting legal costs is sustainable into November.
Otherwise, Mr. Trump will have to scale back his advertising and campaign plans, just as Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party are going all in on Mr. Trump in their vote-getting efforts, making it such a close race. This could be an important support for Biden in the election campaign. –It’s natural to wonder whether this will have a negative impact on swing voters or undecided voters for President Trump. If the race is as close as I and others expect, those voters could be crucial in determining who wins.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China are rising, and America is retreating. ”
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