Increasing defections are puncturing the voters of color myth

The Democratic Party’s declining support among Hispanic, Black, and Asian American voters is exploding among progressives. Shouldn’t voters of color be a strong pillar of a party’s base?

Obviously not. 538According to statistician Nate Silver, the Democratic Party “Bleeding” support Among non-white voters. This is the main reason President Biden is trailing President Donald Trump in many presidential polls.

With this development, caused much speculation Political scientists and journalists are debating whether the United States is undergoing “racial realignment.” There’s no denying Biden’s waning support among nonwhite voters, but it seems to have more to do with class than race.

according to Aggregation of voting results, the president’s advantage among Hispanic voters declined from 24 points in the 2020 election to just 7 points. Among black voters, it fell from 83 points to 55 points.

Of course, polls are not election results. With tailwinds from a booming economy and Trump facing all sorts of legal jeopardy in civil and criminal cases, Biden will see his support among these voters, especially Black voters, increase in 2020. It is possible to approach the level of

But when it comes to Hispanic voters, it’s a different story. They lean toward the Democratic Party but show considerable swings toward the Republican Party.For example, in 2004, President George W. Bush 40 percent Hispanic voting numbers.

Asian Americans are the smallest (7%) and fastest growing category of nonwhite voters. Biden won them easily in 2020. 63-31%t. However, in subsequent elections, Democratic candidates across the country lost ground The same goes for Asian American voters.

These unwelcome trends are debunking the progressive myth that people of color think and vote alike.

Over the past two decades, young activists and wishful thinkers in the left-wing academic/nonprofit/media complex have argued that a combination of generational change and America’s increasing ethnic diversity has created a new progressive majority. I predicted that it would occur.

According to this theory, Democrats might stop worrying. As for the mass exodus of blue-collar whites, they are being replaced by progressive Millennials, Generation Z, and non-white voters who appear to be united by a common experience of discrimination.

So the Democratic Party waved goodbye to the working-class voters who had been its historical pillar and cultural touchstone. But gradual restructuring is nowhere in sight.

instead, parties have decreasedAnd Democrats now find themselves uncompetitive in a wide swath of America outside of major metropolitan areas.

College graduates are doing better, but voters without a degree are doing worse. Approximately two-thirds of voters.

While white college graduates have pushed the party to the left, nonwhite Democrats have not followed suit.About half of Democrats are now identify as liberalOnly 26 percent of blacks and 28 percent of Hispanics say they are liberal.

Surprisingly, among working-class blacks and Hispanics, less than a quarter We call ourselves liberals.

These non-college voters, who are moderate to conservative in outlook, do not share white progressives’ ruthless attitudes toward illegal immigration, crime, and prosecutors who refuse to prosecute.

Like all non-college voters, they anxious A hasty transition to clean energy could raise fuel costs, kill good oil and gas production jobs, and turn energy abundance into scarcity.

nevertheless inflation has fallen, non-college voters remain acutely aware of the high cost of living, describe the economy as poor, and have little appreciation for Biden’s management of the economy.In contrast, the only 38 percent of white college graduates say their economic situation is poor.

In other words, the polarization plaguing the Democratic Party today is educational, not racial. Educated and wealthy whites impose an ideological agenda that is unrelated to the economic and moral concerns of many nonwhite Democrats without college degrees.

And despite efforts by progressive activists to lump them into a cross-section of victimhood, people of color often have vastly different views and interests.

For example, Asian Americans overwhelmingly say: Race and ethnicity should not be considered At university admission. They also joined the Hispanic population; adamant opposition Towards racial reparations.

As political scientists Bill Galston and Elaine Kamarck argue in a report for my organization, the Progressive Policy Institute, that mistake in equating The experience of African Americans and the experience of Hispanics who came here voluntarily as immigrants.

They found that working-class Hispanics were more likely than blacks to view abusive policing as evidence of systemic racism, to prioritize criminal justice reform, and to engage in critical race theory in schools. They point out that they are far less likely to support the

They are also more hawkish in foreign policy and tend to resist socialism (many have defected from socialist countries like Cuba and Venezuela) and tighter border controls to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. be.

Importantly, Hispanic voters appear to be entrepreneurial and more interested in upward mobility than redistribution in the name of equity.

“Democrats need to consider the possibility that Hispanics will become the Italians of the 21st century: family-oriented, religious, patriotic, striving for success in their homeland, and influencing outcomes.” We support public policies that expand economic opportunity without Galston and Kamarck say.

All of this points to the futility of trying to categorize voters by race, ethnicity, or continental origin. As myths about people of color crumble, Democrats should shift their focus from identity to class.

The non-white working class is dissatisfied with the Democratic Party for essentially the same reasons that many white working-class voters left the Republican Party.

Both groups are disgusted by the cultural left, big-spending programs that don’t seem to improve lives, and elite “luxury beliefs” that are far removed from everyday hardships.

This is actually good news for the Democratic Party. This shows that race is not an insurmountable barrier to reaching white working-class voters. Democrats can win over voters across racial and ethnic lines by pivoting their policies around economic priorities and cultural moderation for working-class voters.

Will Marshall is the founder and president of the Progressive Policy Institute.