Abortion threatens GOP’s chances in Florida statehouse races

Abortion policy threatens to hurt Florida Republicans’ chances in the state’s state legislative elections amid widespread voter backlash.

The Florida Supreme Court upheld a 15-week limit on abortions earlier this month, paving the way for a six-week ban passed by the state Legislature last year to take effect soon.

Now, the small number of vulnerable Republican state lawmakers who supported six weeks of restrictions could be at risk in November as anger over the ban grows.

“Given how unpopular this new policy is, and the fact that there is a constitutional amendment question on abortion on the ballot, I think there is some risk for Republicans who vote against it,” the former president said. Congressman Carlos Curbelo (R-Florida) told The Paper. hill.

Florida has become a focal point in the fight over abortion access, with many states restricting access following Roe v. Wade’s reversal.

The state Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that the state constitution’s privacy clause does not relate to abortions and that the controversial 15-week abortion limit could stand.

The state Legislature passed a six-week limit on medical procedures last year, but it was not enforced as a lawsuit over the 15-week ban made its way through the courts.

The six-week ban will officially go into effect on May 1, marking a rapidly changing abortion access landscape in the Sunshine State. At the same time, abortion rights advocates scored a victory when the Florida Supreme Court said this month that a ballot measure seeking to enshrine abortion protections into the state constitution could go before voters as early as this fall.

Some of the lawmakers who voted for the six-week ban live in battleground districts, including Republican state Rep. Rachel Sanders Placon of Seminole County. Susan Plasencia, who represents parts of Orange and Seminole counties; David Smith of Seminole County; Carolina Amestee, who represents parts of Orange and Osceola counties. Currently, not all have declared themselves Democratic challengers.

Nevertheless, Democrats believe that some of these Republican state legislators will be vulnerable to voting on a six-week ban. If so, it would show how abortion policy disrupts redder states at a more local level.

“I think of all the Republicans who voted with basically these ideas.” [Gov. Ron] Mr. DeSantis is trying to increase his White House ambitions. Not only are they putting women and abortion seekers at risk, they are also putting their political careers at risk. How insane they are will become very clear during the election campaign. Even if they have their own locations,” said state Rep. Anna Eskamani (D), who previously worked for Planned Parenthood.

But some experts, like Michael Binder, a professor at the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Institute, say vulnerable Republican state lawmakers could run into further trouble simply by voting on a six-week abortion ban. I’m skeptical that there is.

“There are voting laws that expand abortion rights and enshrine them in the state constitution, and while some people may vote Republican, I’m sure there are others who will vote ‘yes,'” Binder said. ” he pointed out.

“It may also motivate a few more people to come out who might not otherwise come out,” he added. “Not a lot, but some.”

Some Republicans also say they are skeptical, citing factors such as the qualifications of the candidates and the issues that matter most to voters.

“Overall, having the six-week abortion ban and the reproductive rights amendment on the ballot is a net positive in terms of Democratic turnout,” said Justin Safey, a Florida-based Republican strategist. ” he said. “But for Florida Democrats, the challenge in the state House and state Senate races is to field strong candidates.”

Florida Democrats say they’re open to the challenge, Announcement of recruitment activities It plans to field candidates for every state and federal legislative branch early this month.

But Republicans say the problem also stems from the two candidates likely to be at the top of the polls in Florida this season: President Biden and Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D-Fla.). It is claimed that there is.

“They have two weak candidates. [on the statewide ballot]. We need something else to energize voters,” Seifi said.

Both Biden and Mucarsel-Powell have focused on abortion as a major issue in their campaigns in the state. Earlier this week, the president made a campaign stop in Tampa and slammed Florida’s six-week abortion ban, which is set to go into effect next week. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris is scheduled to speak in Jacksonville on the day the ban goes into effect.

“Rather than us having to make this an issue, people are already making this an issue,” said Florida House Minority Leader Fentris Driskell, a Democrat. “Voters have told us that this is a formula for connecting with them. To have the credibility to ask them to vote, we need to make sure we genuinely care about the issues they care about. I need to be able to say that.”

Opinion polls show that this issue is certainly on the minds of voters.

Emerson College Poll released earlier this month Forty-two percent of Florida voters said they planned to vote in November for an amendment that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, while 32% said they were unsure. 25% said they would vote against the bill.

Another USA Today/Ipsos poll Found earlier this month 57% of voters said they would vote to expand access to abortion through the voting system.

Still, Republicans say there will be other issues in November, especially for floating voters.

“That’s the danger for Democrats. They talk about abortion and reproductive rights so much that voters say, ‘Oh my God, they don’t care about the other issues that I care about.’ I’m thinking about it,” Seifi said.