Russia is increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to address gaps in battlefield capabilities and capabilities revealed by its invasion of Ukraine, experts say.
“Russian futurists, Russian engineers, Russian developers envision a slow evolution from a phase of heavy human involvement to a phase of as little human involvement as possible,” Samuel Bendet, a senior fellow in the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told Fox News Digital.
“Some of these statements were made before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russian actions in this war that has involved a very high investment of manpower … but this is the Russian military looking in some way to the future,” he said.
Bendett is CNAS paper Russia’s eagerness to adopt AI could lead the country to take greater risks as it tries to catch up with the West, he argued. He relied on official statements, announcements and analysis from Russian-language media to craft his paper, which examines major developments in robotics and AI and Russia’s quest for an “intelligent” military that can make semi-autonomous decisions.
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“These sources provide a glimpse into Russian deliberations and debates regarding the role and utility of AI on the modern battlefield, helping analysts understand what Russia values when it comes to AI research and development,” Bendet wrote.
Bendet argues that the biggest concern Western officials have about Russia’s AI uses is the integration of AI systems into nuclear command, which is Russia’s top priority.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Victory Day military parade celebrating victory over Nazi Germany, May 9, 2023, in Red Square in Moscow. (Gabriel Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
Russia’s main immediate goal is to use AI for data collection, analysis, and “situational awareness,” but the military eventually aims to incorporate it into decision-making, including how and when to deploy nuclear weapons.
“Defense and government officials are repeatedly positioning AI as a data analysis and decision-making tool,” Bendet said, “so nuclear forces will be part of a larger effort to integrate some of these more advanced technologies with analysis and understanding by human operators.”
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Bendet expands on this point in his paper, stating that AI would assist Russian officials if their political leaders were incapacitated and unable to make important decisions. The system, called Perimeter, is a Cold War-era automated nuclear weapons control system linked to Russia’s doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD) that is still operational today, which Bendet points out is indicative of a trend in Russian thinking.
“Their continued existence today implies that semi-automated systems are preferred over fully automated ones to address the challenges of enormous stress, the pressure to understand unfolding situations in real time, the lack of relevant information, and the emotions that influence human decision makers under stress,” Bendet wrote.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke in Moscow to mark the 79th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. (Tian Bin/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)
“By removing the pressure on Russian leaders to decide whether to launch a nuclear strike in the short term under pressure, the Perimeter is intended to reduce the risk of miscalculation on both sides and avoid wrong decisions with devastating consequences,” he added.
One of the main concerns he raises is that while Russia’s views on AI are in line with those of other major powers, it may lack the capacity to deploy those systems, especially given Western sanctions and export controls.
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In his paper, Bendet cited several factors that could hinder Russia’s development and adoption of AI technology, specifically the exodus of engineers at the start of the invasion of Ukraine, lack of access to parts and data, and the impact on the economy as major obstacles Russia faces in its AI ambitions.
Bendet argued that Russia’s desperate attempt to catch up with the West could force Russian authorities to turn to China, a close ally of Moscow, to fill development gaps.
In this joint photo published by Russian state news agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold an informal meeting in Beijing on May 16, 2024. (Mikhail Kostyantin Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
“One of the things we’re finding with the imposition of sanctions starting in March 2022 is that Russia is able to get around a lot of the sanctions and actually get what it needs through willing partners or partners who don’t know about the specific deal,” Bendet explained in an interview with Fox News Digital.
“Of course, this involves microelectronics, specific hardware and software solutions. As long as Russia maintains open trade and relations with countries such as China and India, as well as many other countries around the world, it will have access to certain technologies and specific concepts necessary for high-tech developments, especially artificial intelligence developments,” he argued.
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Rebecca Koffler, strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” told Fox News Digital that AI is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “top priorities,” with annual reports on progress on development and implementation.
“Putin once said that whichever country controls AI will rule the world,” Kofler said. “His concern is that if the West takes the lead in AI, Western values and concepts will be imbued with it, not Russian values.”
“Putin believes that Russia will lose its sovereignty if it loses the AI race,” she added. “Putin has previously likened AI to nuclear weapons and predicted that AI will go down the same path as nuclear weapons development. Once people realize how dangerous AI can be if not properly managed, there will be attempts to control it.”
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Kofler argued that Putin had indirectly acknowledged that the US was pioneering AI development, and pointed to billionaire Elon Musk’s Neuralink as evidence that Musk “is going to do what he thinks needs to be done” to advance the technology.
Both Bendet and Kofler lamented the difficulty of fully assessing Russia’s AI advances due to a lack of “credible information” and an over-reliance on Russian government statements, which Kofler warned are often “hyperbole.”
