Despite finishing the season 10-3 and beating the University of Wisconsin in the Leliaquest Bowl, LSU’s 2023 season was a disappointment considering the Tigers were a dark horse favorite for the national championship.
The Tigers are expected to be one of the best teams in the SEC this season.
FanDuel ranks them fifth with odds of 10/1 to win the conference.
They also have the seventh-lowest odds (18/1) of winning a national championship.
Let’s take a look at LSU’s roster and schedule to see if the Tigers can compete for a conference or national title this fall.
Offensive Outlook
Jayden Daniels, Malik Neighbors and Bryan Thomas Jr. are all heading to the NFL.
The trio led an offense that averaged a nationally best 45.5 points per game, and with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock leaving for Notre Dame, replacing them will not be easy.
Redshirt junior Garrett Nussmeyer (18/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy) has waited three years for an opportunity to start at LSU.
He will rely heavily on tight end Mason Taylor, who is poised to take on a bigger role, and CJ Daniels was a big addition in the transfer portal from Liberty.
Four starters from last season return, and continuity on the offensive line gives the offense structure.
Will Campbell is the team’s leading prospect as a first-round pick at left tackle.
The line will open up holes for graduate running back Josh Williams, who is entering his sixth season at LSU.
Defensive Outlook
Last year, LSU’s offense was strong, but their defense struggled and didn’t finish in the top 100 in FEI or drive finishes.
Brian Kelly hired Blake Baker, who led Missouri to victory defensively last year (top 30 in points allowed per game), to help solve those issues.
He’s only 19 years old, but former super recruit Harold Perkins’ potential is limitless.
He is expected to move from middle linebacker to a role that will see him step outside the tackle box more often and allow him to play all over the field.
The Tigers are looking to be more physical and aggressive with Baker’s tactics and are expected to employ more press cover concepts.
Freshman P.J. Woodland has risen through the ranks over the offseason and should thrive.
He and sophomore forward Ashton Stamps will be counted on to boost the production of a secondary that was 92nd in defensive coverage last year, according to PFF.
Schedule Analysis
LSU will start the season against a live underdog USC team in a neutral venue match.
The Trojans have enough talented wide receivers to test an inexperienced LSU secondary.
I have confidence that Miller Moss can maintain his offensive consistency following the departure of Caleb Williams.
The Tigers won’t play Texas or Georgia, but they will be tested on the road against Texas A&M and Florida.
The home game between Ole Miss and Alabama should be a coin toss to determine the conference champion.
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Final Verdict
LSU’s offense will likely take a step back, so the defense will need to improve.
Regardless of how you feel about Nussmeyer’s chances of success, losing Daniels, Neighbors, Thomas and Denbrock is a big problem to overcome in one season.
The offensive line is one of the best in the country, but the team’s explosiveness will inevitably decrease.
Defensively, some improvement can be expected under Baker, but to what extent?
Perkins should thrive in his new role, but the Tigers have an immature secondary and two starting edge rushers who combined for just 4.5 sacks last fall.
Ten wins will be tough to come by with this schedule, and if USC pulls off an upset in Week 1, things will look very dicey for the Tigers very quickly.
With plenty of opportunity to hedge later in the schedule, I’d bet on LSU under 9.5 wins.
Recommendation: USC +6.5 (-115) in Week 1, LSU Under 9.5 to win (-170).
