The latest polls in seven battleground states point to a scenario in which Donald Trump could win with 296 electoral votes in November.
Trafalgar, which conducted the poll from Aug. 28 to 30, estimated that Trump would win 44 electoral votes in key blue wall states in November. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Within the poll's margin of error.
Insider Advantage Between August 29 and 31, he also conducted polls in four other battleground states, with Trump winning in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.
To be sure, each of these states remains statistically close, and the final outcome will be uncertain on Election Day.
But the poll stands in contrast to recent polls that have shown Vice President Kamala Harris gaining support in states that will decide the election.
In the Wolverine State, Trafalgar projects the former president to win by a narrow margin, 47% to 46.6%.
Trump holds a large lead in Pennsylvania, 47% to 45%, and while a 2% victory wouldn't be a landslide, it would be a bigger win than the 0.72% margin of victory he won in the state eight years ago.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is a polarizing state, with Trump beating Harris 47% to 46%, though that margin seems slim considering Trump won the state by 0.77% in 2016 and lost by 0.63% in 2020.
Of note, Real Clear Politics Polling averages currently lean all three of those states toward Harris, but Michigan strengthened its tilt on Aug. 29.
In Arizona, Trump is leading 49% to 48% in the race for the state's 11 electoral votes, a smaller margin than Biden's 0.3% victory four years ago. Automatic recounting Trump holds a more than 12-point lead among independents in the state.
A 9.5% lead among independents gives Trump a 48%-47% lead in Nevada, which will decide the state's six electoral votes, a state he lost in both 2016 and 2020.
Meanwhile, Trump is leading Harris in North Carolina, 49% to 48%, a smaller margin of victory than the 1.34% margin Trump won in 2020. That's despite Harris leading independents 50% to 46%. Trump could win North Carolina's 16 electoral votes.
Georgia is the lone exception, where Harris holds a 48% to 47.6% lead in the 16-vote race. Her lead among independents is minimal, 45.2% to 45.1%.
