One group of voters could help drive a Democratic victory in Arizona's Senate elections and also help former President Trump win in the key battleground state.
Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris among Arizona voters, 49% to 45%. The New York Times and Siena CollegeThis was a marked change from last month's numbers, when Harris took the lead.
At the same time, Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, defeated Republican Senate candidate Kali Lake, 50% to 41%.
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Police groups have endorsed both former President Trump and Rep. Ruben Gallego. (Reuters)
According to the New York Times, “respondents who said they supported Gallego and Trump split-party were far more likely to be Latino, less college-educated and lower-income.”
“Gallego voted 100% in line with President Biden and the Harris Administration during the 117th Congress. Five Thirty EightWhile no fan of Trump, the former president is a huge supporter of Lake.
Despite their political differences, they simultaneously managed to attract a significant constituency of voters.
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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (Fox News)
“In American politics, you always have to consider whether gender plays a role,” Melissa Michaelson, dean of the School of Arts and Sciences and professor of political science at Menlo College in California, told Fox News Digital.
Both Trump and Gallego are running against women in their respective elections.
“Gender scholars say that when women run for office, they face additional challenges,” she explained.
Trump's 2016 election campaign showed he had strong support among those without college degrees and also demonstrated an ability to appeal to non-white voters, including Latinos, who are seen as key members of the Democratic coalition.
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Republican Senate candidate Kali Lake has the endorsement of President Trump. (Getty Images)
His enduring popularity with these voters is evident in the latest polls, “and certainly these voters are more likely to support a Latino candidate,” Michaelson said, explaining why some of them are backing Gallego for the Senate race.
She noted that Latinos are more likely to vote Democrat and also tend to vote for Latino candidates. “When the candidate in front of you is from your same racial group and your same party, it's easy,” Michelson said.
As for whether women are more likely to vote for female candidates, she noted that gender is “not a very strong identity or motivator for vote choice.”
“People don't think about their gender in the same way they think about their race.”
The possibility of a split vote in Arizona resulting in Trump winning the presidential election and Gallego winning the vacant Senate seat would be noteworthy given the recent decline in split votes.
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Trump has gained support among Latinos. (Getty Images)
Republican strategist Kevin Madden said the outcome of the vote ultimately “depends on the candidates.”
“Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Ruben Gallego in Arizona are examples of candidates running very carefully tailored campaigns to the political environment in their states,” he told Fox News Digital.
Gallego has certainly worked to drum up support from Latino men. This Cinco de Mayo, his camp held a viewing party at the JL Boxing Academy in Glendale to watch a bout between Mexican champion boxer Canelo Alvarez and fellow previously unbeaten boxer Jaime Munguia. It is reportedly equipped The game was shown on a big screen, and the event featured an outdoor food truck serving birria tacos and Mexican colas.
The viewing party was expected to draw more than 100 guests, mostly Latino Arizona residents and their families.
“They are doing everything they can to remove themselves from the jet stream of national politics and reduce their own campaign surrogacy in the presidential election,” Madden said.
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Michaelson argued that the Arizona Police Association's (APA) recent endorsement of both Gallego and Trump could encourage the increasingly rare practice of split-voting. It is reported that they support Lake won the 2022 gubernatorial race, but the union chose Democrat Gallego for the 2024 senate race.
But Lake won the backing of another police union, the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, earlier this month.
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