Postal voting data from three key states shows the advantage Democrats enjoyed in 2020 has plummeted, and one expert says that's a great sign for Republicans and former President Donald Trump.
“It's great news that Republicans are starting to vote early,” Jimmy Keady, founder and president of Republican consulting firm JLK Political Strategies, told Fox News Digital.
The comments came after Democrats' advantages in mail-in ballot requests in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania narrowed significantly, according to Decision Desk HQ data, signaling a shift in voting habits that has defined the past two elections.
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Former President Donald Trump attends a town hall meeting moderated by Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, Michigan, on September 17, 2024. (Jeff Kowalski/AFP via Getty Images)
The data showed Democrats' lead in mail-in ballot requests shrunk by more than 5 percentage points in Florida, nearly 15 percentage points in North Carolina and more than 35 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
Keady said encouraging voters to vote early or by mail would save campaign resources and allow them to focus on less-willing voters, who often play a major role in deciding elections.
“Voters are always going to be frustrated by the text messages and mailings and automated phone calls they get when they go to the polls,” Keady said. “Campaigns are sophisticated enough now that they stop when you go to the polls… They stop when a voter goes to the polls and they allow for the allocation of resources from that voter to another.”
Getting less-engaged voters to vote could play a big role in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, both of which are expected to be close battleground states again.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Leadership Conference at the Ronald Reagan Building, Wednesday, September 18, 2024, in Washington, DC. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
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Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead of less than a point in Pennsylvania, while Trump has a similar lead in North Carolina, according to a Real Clear Politics polling average, meaning that low-key efforts to mobilize voters on both sides could decide the election.
While Democrats' advantages in voting by mail and early voting likely determined the outcome of the 2020 election, Keady sees a shift in Republican momentum on that front in 2024.
“This shows, A, we had high voter turnout, but it also shows, B, that the base was able to accept that early voting was an appropriate and largely safe way to vote,” Keady said.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in Uniondale, New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
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Keady said this will help Republicans compete against Democrats in areas where they were clearly at a disadvantage in 2020 and could give them an advantage in the next close election.
“As Republicans, we need to get our base to do what we know is safe and secure – voting early and voting by mail – and get people to the polls. Democrats have done this very well for many years.”
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