A new poll shows Pennsylvania is neck and neck between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, which is good news.
Bear with me. I am not an optimistic person when it comes to polls, I say. I look at averages along with what we know about the actual votes. So based on what I am seeing, the latest polls in Pennsylvania that have the presidential race tied at 48 percent are a reason for cautious optimism.
Pennsylvania will almost certainly determine who the next president will be.
Watch the video — Crowd gathers to see Trump outside a grocery store in Pennsylvania:
Margo Martin (via Storyful)
Muhlenberg College Voted The survey of 450 voters conducted between September 16 and 19 found that incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump both had approval ratings of 48%.
Amazingly, this is the fourth poll in just under two weeks to show Pennsylvania tied, with the other two polls during that time showing Trump ahead by +1 and +2.
So why am I sounding cautiously optimistic? Click here hereIt's all blue. Look at Harris leading by +3 to +5 in four consecutive polls. And…
Six consecutive polls, especially the last six, have wiped out all the blue.
Next, find out early what your mail-in request will look like.
In 2020, Joe Biden reportedly won Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes. As of Monday, Democrats have requested 360,101 fewer mail-in ballots than they did on the same day four years ago, compared to 2020. Republicans have requested 69,963 fewer votes. Still, Democrats have a net loss of 290,138 votes.
On the same day in 2020, Democrats held a 775,990-vote advantage in mail-in ballots. Eventually, that advantage grew to 1 million votes. Now, their advantage is just 485,852 votes.
There's more data…
2016, RealClearPolitics Average votes Polls had shown Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 2.1 points in Pennsylvania, but Trump went on to win the state by nearly three points, beating the polls.
But the RealClearPolitics average for 2020 was accurate: Biden was said to have won the state. 1.2 PointsThat's exactly what the opinion polls show.
I keep saying over and over again that we'll know more in the next few weeks, but in the end, we won't know. What I do know is that since the second assassination attempt, Trump has been much more disciplined in his campaign and on social media. I also know that polls show Trump winning on the issues people care about most. The only reason Trump can't win by a landslide is because many people find his personality unpresidential and disagreeable. If he can show some discipline in behaving like a president in the next six weeks, he can win this election. I firmly believe that.
John Nolte's first and last novel Borrowed time, Winning 5-Star Rave Reviews Submissions from our everyday readers. You can read excerpts here here And a detailed review here. Also available in Hardcover and Kindle and Audiobooks.
