The establishment media is going after J.D. Vance, who loudly said during the Vice Presidential debate that immigrants will increase home prices for Americans.
But they distort his arguments, move the goalposts, change the subject, and downplay his tacit admission that immigrants are actually driving up the cost of housing for Americans.
Their evasions and obfuscations reflect Vance's political view that President Joe Biden's mass immigration policies are forcing middle-class and young Americans from their homes to make room for more illegal immigrants. It is likely intended to protect Democrats from strong criticism.
“According to J.D. Vance, immigration is the root of all evil in the world.” new york times economist paul krugman mocked “Still, immigrants are people too, and people need housing,” he wrote, showing a diagram depicting a 4 percent price increase as a 9 percent decline.
What did Vance say in the presidential debate?
You see, in Springfield, Ohio, and in communities across this country, schools are overwhelmed, hospitals are overwhelmed, and housing is completely unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants. Competing with Americans for scarce housing…We don't want to blame immigrants for rising housing prices, but we're admitting millions of illegal aliens into this country that are driving up costs. I blame Kamala Harris for that… 25 million illegal aliens competing with Americans for scarce housing is one of the most important drivers of housing prices.
Since 2021, Biden's lawmakers have imported nearly 10 million immigrants through legal, illegal, semi-legal and temporary immigration routes. This has a big impact on housing demand and prices in the places where immigrants settle.
of Los Angeles Times and sacramento bee recognized Vance said the 37% rise in home prices nationally was due to the housing shortage, which he said was “one of the most important drivers,” as if government-induced migration were contributing to the housing shortage. I changed the subject as if it hadn't happened.
“There is reason to suspect that the influx of immigrants is a major factor in the housing affordability shortage,” said a Washington, D.C.-based official. Axios “The pattern points to factors such as long-term housing supply, pandemic demand, and fiscal and monetary policy,” he said, before acknowledging that immigration played a role in rising costs. grow bigger This is a factor that affects housing prices more than immigration flows. ”
Fast forward to September 2023. Quote Axios Many city officials recognized that immigration would cause a housing shortage. “When people feel like they are against each other, [New York City Comptroller Brad] “It could fan dangerous flames…I think there's a real risk of further fanning the flames of xenophobia,” Lander said.
of washington post said Vance acknowledged that immigrants are driving up home prices, but asserted that “other forces play a much larger role in driving up prices.” The statement “a much bigger role” is a tacit admission that immigrants do indeed increase house prices.
NBC News I moved the goalposts and said,“In general, economists are skeptical that immigration is a major factor in our current predicament,” he said, implicitly acknowledging that immigration is one factor in increasing housing costs.
The article then turned to federal aid, quoting the mayor of Springfield, Ohio, which has been hit hard by the influx of 20,000 immigrants. “Without additional support at the federal level, communities like Springfield will not be able to survive” to meet the housing needs of residents. ”
Returning to Springfield, Ohio, where Vance started his business, an influx of Haitian immigrants has caused housing prices to rise. red finThe median sales price of single-family homes sold there rose from $78,500 in August 2019 to $158,000 in August 2024, an increase of 101 percent in nominal terms. The nationwide increase was 46 percent On a nominal basis for the same period. As a result, renters and first-time homebuyers are faring worse in Springfield, while homeowners, most of whom are locally born, are faring better.
“Vance is exaggerating, but he has a point,” Politico said. report He quoted a top economist in the Barack Obama administration.
“Immigration does indeed drive up home values, but it also only explains a small portion of the increase we have seen in recent years.” [Jason Furman] Added. “J.D. Vance gets the sign right and the magnitude wrong.”
Some media outlets downplayed political issues by focusing on rent, even though rent also drives up housing prices.
Poor immigrants “are not competing for the same households as middle-class Americans,” said one immigration advocate. post.
Darryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist, said immigrants can't drive home prices up because they pay the rent. politiko.
But rising rents increase housing costs for Americans and also create an incentive for landlords to pay higher prices before they can profitably convert middle-class housing into rent-shared apartments for more poor immigrants. are.
Quoted by Politico September 2024 Survey Moody's Analytics says that when immigrants leave, both rents and home prices fall.
From a housing demand perspective, immigrants, especially newcomers, make up a significant portion of rental households. A significant decline in this population could significantly reduce demand for housing, primarily affecting the multifamily market and putting downward pressure on rents. While metropolitan areas with large immigrant populations may be affected immediately, subsequent impacts may change supply and demand dynamics across multiple urban and suburban communities.
The Moody's report states:
Nationally, asking rents are now 20% above pre-pandemic levels. As a result, more than half (51.8%) of all renters spend more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities, with the majority classified as severely rent burdened or rent-to-income ratio (RTI). is classified as exceeding 50%. .
The Moody's report is a credible admission of a conflict of interest, since Moody's top leadership opposed Donald Trump's promised immigration cuts in 2016 on the grounds that they would lower home values.
Overall, nearly all housing experts, although not Democratic politicians, recognize that immigrants need housing and that they drive up prices as they compete with Americans.
“Immigrant influx into certain MSAs [Metropolitan Statistical Area] associated with rising rents housing prices” said in March 2017. article in Journal of Housing Economics.
Worse, “circumstantial evidence suggests that an influx of immigrants into a particular MSA causes an outflow of natives to neighboring MSAs,” the report states. This exodus of the middle class has a major impact on housing prices in non-diverse school districts with few immigrants.
Quoted by Politico January 2024 Report Regarding the impact of immigration, “our estimates suggest that an average increase of 1 percentage point in the share of immigrants in the local population increases house price growth by about 7 percentage points.” said.
However, many countries that import immigrants have created housing crises. “Even more dramatic price findings are reported by Gonzalez and Ortega (2013), who conclude that immigration to Spain over the past decade was responsible for a 52% increase in home values.” states. journal The article attracted attention.
In July, for example, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged that young Canadians would be denied housing equity because they would not be able to enter the immigrant-inflated housing market on their own. Homebuyers' plans are inevitably what people a generation ago did in terms of what to do with their retirement nest eggs. ”
