Reports that Democrats are beginning to panic over the state of the race are backed up by numerous battleground state polls showing former President Trump with substantial momentum.
As always, we use the most reliable poll available as an example. This is the state poll average poll by RealClearPolitics. After this, I'll explain why Trump is gaining momentum.
in pennsylvaniaIn states likely to decide the next president, President Trump leads incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 0.3 percentage points. But what's notable is that Harris has led in just one of the last seven polls. And if you exclude the oldest poll, an outlier that shows CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar with a 5-point lead, Trump's average lead jumps to 1 point.
For context, on the same day of the 2016 presidential election, Trump lost Pennsylvania to Hillary Clinton by 9.4 points (Trump later won by 0.7 points). On the same day in 2020, Biden led by 7.1 points. Biden is said to have won by just 1.2 percentage points.
in michiganDemocrats appear to be even more concerned than in Pennsylvania, where Trump has an average lead of 0.7 percentage points. In addition to one tied poll, he has also led the last four polls.
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On this day in 2016, President Trump lost Michigan by 7.3 points. In the end, he won the state by 0.3 points. In 2020, Trump lost 6.7 points. I heard that they lost by only 2.8 points.
in wisconsin Harris has an average lead of 0.4 points, but the last three polls have shown Trump tied by 1 point and 2 points.
On this day in 2016, President Trump lost Wisconsin by 6.8 points. In the end, they won with a difference of 0.7 points. In 2020, it decreased by 5.5 points. Biden reportedly won by just 0.7 points.
in north carolinaTrump has an average lead of just 0.6 points, but he has led in seven of the last seven polls.
in georgiaTrump leads by 0.8 points, but he has led in five of the past seven polls and tied in two.
in arizonaTrump has a 0.9 point lead and has maintained his lead in the last three polls.
lastly, nevadawhere Kamala is campaigning today, she holds an average lead of one point.
The RCP average currently shows Trump leading in five of the seven battleground states. This returned Trump to the White House with 296 electoral votes to Kamala's 215. Nevertheless, Mr. Kamala's grip on Wisconsin appears precarious. The only state where she holds a slight but consistent lead is Nevada. If you look at polls in other states, there's a lot of red at the top. It's momentum.
So, what has changed in order to somehow break out of the long-deadening stalemate situation?
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I would like to make three points…
After that disastrous debate loss, Trump has run a more disciplined campaign. It cannot be overstated how important it is that President Trump does not remind many voters why they hate him more than illegal immigration or inflation. Discipline. Discipline. Discipline.
Second, the great performance of President Trump's running mate J.D. Vance in the vice presidential debate…Vance not only slaughters Tim Waltz and eviscerates Kamala's failing record, but also does a great job of commanding the facts. He introduced himself as a smart and decent man.
Finally, as I've said all along, Kamala Harris is terrible when it comes to politics. terrible. I hated the idea of Hillary Clinton becoming president, but no one doubted that she was worthy of the job. Harris hasn't cleared that hurdle yet. She always seems scripted, insecure, and unwilling to give straight answers. All of this makes her look vulnerable in a country where alpha males (which could be women) win presidential elections.
Her duality stumbled this week when she was asked what makes her different from Joe Biden. A perfect example of that. she asked the following questions The View And she sulks at it by saying she wouldn't do anything different. That very afternoon, Stephen Colbert gave her a second chance, and she responded in kind. Did you know Colbert was allowing her to clean it up? view Disaster struck and she expected it to happen. After all, she had hours to come up with a good answer. Instead, she responded the same way, acting like she didn't know anything.
And then there was the incident in which she stalked Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) in the middle of a hurricane. Talk about looking weak, pathetic, and unpresidential. Biden praising DeSantis and stabbing Kamala in the back was even more delicious. Trust me; nothing would make Joe happier than seeing Kamala lose.
There's still three weeks left and a change needs to be made, but as of today, I'd prefer Trump over Harris. This is still a race that Donald should lose.
John Nolte's first and last novel. borrowed time, winning five star rave From daily readers. You can read an excerpt here and a detailed review here. Also available in hard cover And even more Kindle and audio book.
