Despite the fact that companies have been reducing the number of staff at the fastest pace in the past four years in response to the fall of the Rachel Reeves administration, the Ingremma faces the dilemma as the inflation pressure is back. There is.
Prior to the interest rate crisis on February 6, an influential corporate survey showed that the British dominant service department was led, and in early 2025 economic growth was slightly higher.
however, Purchasing person flash index The S & P Global PMI statistics in January, which the Bank and the Ministry of Finance are carefully monitoring, suggest that the average price of the British private sector has risen at the fastest pace in the past 18 months.
The employer has also reduced the number of employees at the fastest pace since the new Coronavirus infection pandemic in 2021. Except for the health emergency, the number of reduction rates has been the highest since the 2009 World Financial Crisis.
In addition to the pressure on the Labor Party, which started this year due to the turmoil of the financial market, the retail sales in January will continue to decline after the disappointing Christmas in another statistics, and consumer trust since late 2023. It was shown that it had dropped to the lowest level.
“Inflation has been stopped again and England has a policy dilemma,” said Chris Williamson, the chief business economist of S & P. He added that the UK is facing a “stagflation environment”, which is linked to low economic growth and high inflation.
He says, “The economic stall and the deterioration of the employment market suggest that the need for growth in promoting growth is increasing, but the rise in price pressure has never returned into the bottle. It suggests that. “
Urban investors have reduced interest rates from the current level of 4.75 % at the next policy meeting on February 6, following concerns about inflation statistics in December and concerns about economic growth stagnation. I expect it.
Financial markets reflect 81 % of the probability of rate auction to 4.5 %. However, the city's traders warned that the ability to further reduce central bank borrowing costs due to the rise in inflation pressure is likely to be restricted. Investors have incorporated a 0.25 % point a complete interest in 2025.
Inflation has retreated from the peak of more than 11 % in the second half of 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine has risen energy prices. However, last fall, it temporarily rose to 2.5 %, although it was 2 % below the central bank's goal, and investors could expect more than 3 % within a few months. 。
According to Mark Douding, Chief Investor RBC Blue Bay Asset Management, said, “It is very likely that English banks will use all opportunities to reduce interest rates and reduce interest rates to 4.5 % in their context. It is expected. ” In February.
“but, [we continue] The inflation rate is stubbornly staying around 3.5 to 4%, which means that it is difficult to see. [Andrew] Bailey will be able to lower the interest rate further than this. “
In January, the “breaking bulletin” of the UK General PMI rose slightly from 50.4 in December to the highest level for the first time in three months. The value of 50.0 distinguishes the growth and shrinking of the private sector.
After the news letter promotion
Analysts warned that inflation has been rising since the increase in the OFGEM energy price in January, and in April that it would be expected to increase in April. While the price increase rate is rising, Food wholesale prices also rise In the last few months.
In addition, Reaves's October budget has raised the employer national insurance premiums by 25 billion pounds and raised 6.7 % of the minimum wage, so companies warn the company to reduce personnel reduction or price increase. I'm doing it.
According to bankruptcy expert Begby's Trainer, the number of British companies, which had fallen on the verge of bankruptcy in the last three months of 2024, increased by 50 % from the previous quarter. According to the report, 46,850 companies have fallen into “serious” financial difficulties, and consumers such as hotels, leisure, and retailers have been squeezed.
The Prime Minister has repeatedly promoted a company in the Davos in the World Economic Forum, and has revised the Labor Party's determination in the past week to grow British economy. Leves is expected to move further, and a speech is planned next week.
According to another statistics published by the CBI lobby group, the retail sales in January decreased from the same month last year, and the GFK consumer trust index, which has been attracting attention, has declined to the lowest level since late 2023.
“Recent growth statistics have urgently necessary to inject momentum into the economy, and the government has a policy that enhances the trust of the entire major sectors, including retail. You should consider the means. “
