The market loves Donald Trump’s latest 180 trade. He now appears to be softening about tariffs after the market rebelled against his previous hardline approach.
But when it comes to money, business leaders (the people who decide to decide to spend on investments and hire and fire people) still have a lot more optimism about the trade situation.
They are still betting on taking minor miracles to cut trades in a timely manner before the economy really lie down.
Yes, dealing with less economic countries is likely to happen anytime. However, given what they know about our most important trading partner, China, the contract is never materialized or can only do so after months of intense negotiations.
In other words, despite all the happy stories coming out of the team’s Trump, they are beginning to earn money into their business models, with the potential for economic slowdowns and recession.
Unemployment is on the card, targeting the very people Trump considers his base, Central America.
They aren’t often exposed in these horrors for many reasons, like our famous, unstable president Donald Trump, who doesn’t want to blow Don’s wrath away. They are telling their feelings to the investment bank and the investment banker is telling me so I can tell you.
To be fair, another reason they don’t want to air their feelings is that the CEO says there is a small, but realistic opportunity for Trump to take away not only the art of deals, but also the “art of the contract of the century” for the coming weeks.
He might be able to use his charm to plead Chinese President XI to reform his predatory, merchantalist economy and allow businesses to be allowed to his market and its burgeoning consumer base.
The rest of the world, like the EU and the UK, may see that crossing the US in its own consumption-based economy is a losing formula.
The possibility that Trump is against the odds, as he’s done it over and over again in his business and political career is why you’re not announcing significant layoffs despite all the volatility.
“The CEO I’m talking about gives you a 20% chance that Trump will pull away something positive,” said the Wall Street CEO, who regularly speaks to dozens of CEOs in key business moves.
“They don’t want to be whipped, so they haven’t done anything with the rash yet. They’re a bit lame at this point.”
One thing is certain, the US CEOs are in the toughest places as the banking system was on the brink of 2007, 2008 and early 2009 financial crisis, almost stopped to close before government bailouts.
World trade was an issue they really didn’t need to worry about. Though it is a long-standing multilateral trade agreement, it was set on less stones.
Once elected president, Trump, of course, changed it all, “liberated” the country from what he called unfair trade deals, returned manufacturing to rusty belts and Central America, and responded to his promise to use tariffs of varying degrees as weapons of choice.
The White House claims that tariffs will be paid on its own. Money is used to pay off debts. Manufacturing is due to be back in the country as it is offshore to China and other regions.
The CEO class says that while it may be in the long run, in short and medium implementation (for example, year), tariffs will overturn the economy. Their costs go to consumers, creating higher inflation. Mutual tariffs mean that US companies are being blocked from foreign markets. It could lead to a recession that says they’re here or come quickly.
Worse, CEOs are worried about the lack of a way to trade madness. After announcing the full tariffs, President Trump has enacted a “suspension” for all countries except China, but recently said tariffs on China aren’t too troublesome, but that he may do so if he doesn’t sway his will.
Amidst the chaos, even friendly trading partners have not signed the proceeds, despite Treasury Secretary Bescent saying it is close to dealing with India, Japan, South Korea and Australia.
Yes, a bit crazy. In this environment, companies don’t know how to source products from overseas. How much does this cost? China is its major trading partner. For all the stories of the country’s protectionism, they are big buyers of American agriculture.
According to Bescent, this all sounds like they know that, contrary to the White House spin, the trade war is coming to an end, and that even the war with China is “unsustainable.” If you dig deeper, you will see that Bessent is ready to deal with China or that Xi is not sure that they are ready to deal with us.
Xi didn’t say anything because he didn’t have to. He is a lifelong president and will not suffer political consequences if the tariff war causes inflation and a recession.
Another factor: CEOs who know one or two things about dealing with China say they hate their leadership losing their face. Just as Trump has lost his face to carry out 180 in the biggest policy move since Trump was elected, the cave will soon lose his face to Trump in trade.
The deadlock appears to be on the card, and the CEO tells the banker. Now you know why businesses are crippled, and you can build the odds where Trump cannot separate the art of trading of the century.
