Understanding the Complexities in Nagaland
At first glance, Dimapur in Nagaland seems quite ordinary. However, a closer look reveals a long history of disarray and erosion beneath the surface.
The issues plaguing Nagaland and its neighboring northeastern states are largely tied to an assertive China, which has been leveraging Myanmar to challenge India both directly and indirectly for years. Smuggling operations infiltrate the area—ranging from drugs and advanced weaponry to parts of wildlife and betelnuts—all underpinned by Chinese financial influence and a method dubbed the “three wars.”
A battered social fabric in the Northeast is grappling with the devastating effects of drug addiction and armed conflict, struggling to represent its younger generations caught in this turmoil.
To grasp the dynamics of these conflicts and their consequences, it’s crucial to first understand China’s “three warfares” strategy and its practical applications.
Unpacking the Strategy
The era of conventional warfare has shifted for China. The military and government now adopt innovative strategies that aim to prevent direct casualties among their troops. Instead, they engage in proxy conflicts that target their intended foes from a distance.
The “three warfares” consist of:
- Psychological warfare
- Public debate
- Legal warfare
A senior source indicated that Chinese influence was evident in the Pahargam attack, categorizing Pakistan’s use of terror networks as part of a Chinese-led strategy against India.
This intent becomes more transparent when reviewing China’s actions since around 2010. You can see how China has wooed its Indian neighbors with infrastructural investments and loans. Take Pakistan as a case in point; it’s akin to how China interacts with Myanmar and Bangladesh today.
Notably, approximately 80% of Pakistan’s military supplies are of Chinese origin, with around 25% of its debt owed to China, making it the largest creditor. Since 2020, struggling Pakistanis have turned to the International Monetary Fund, while two-thirds of the $42.9 billion in loans that China has issued to South Asian nations has been to Pakistan, according to World Bank data.
Furthermore, following the Pahargam incident, China has openly backed Pakistan in various international forums.
Similar scenarios play out in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The coup that dismantled a democratically elected government, support for Myanmar’s military leadership, and assistance to Bangladesh’s interim prime minister—all serve China’s aspirations regarding the “seven sister states” of Northeast India.
China’s influence extends beyond governments; there are reports indicating that it funds and arms several militant groups to fulfill its strategic objectives. For instance, it’s widely acknowledged that China has supported Myanmar’s Arakan Army and various insurgent factions.
Informants revealed that China continues to provide backing to violent factions in India’s northeastern region, particularly NSCN-IM, ZRA, and PLA.
Who Are These Groups?
NSCN-IM, standing for the Isaac Muiba faction, promotes Nagaland’s socialist aspirations—stemming from a split within the Nagaland National Council (NNC), which also impacts Myanmar where the Naga community exists.
ZRA refers to the Zomi Revolutionary Army, primarily comprising Paite groups operating in Manipur and Myanmar.
PLA is the People’s Liberation Army, a rebel group from Manipur that has been advocating for the region’s independence since 1978.
The NSCN emerged in 1980 as a reaction to the Shillong Agreement, aimed at curtailing hostility between the Naga populace and the Indian state. This agreement entailed granting autonomy to the Nagas in exchange for disarmament.
By 1988, the NSCN split into factions, with NSCN-IM gaining prominence under leaders like Isak Chisi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah. Their training in South China during the late 1980s had a profound effect on their strategic direction, which became aligned with Maoist ideologies. This connection facilitated the receipt of funds and arms from China, leading to significant unrest in Nagaland.
As SC Jameel, a former prime minister of Nagaland, explains, the NSCN-IM’s approach transformed the original intent of the Naga National Council, as they sought power through armed means rather than negotiation.
Meanwhile, ZRA has been engaged in various conflicts in southern Manipur and Myanmar since it coalesced in 1997 amidst ethnic strife.
Both groups are reportedly armed and financially supported by China, intercepting drugs and betelnuts from Myanmar into India. They are also involved in the illegal wildlife trade, including trafficking tiger skins and live pangolins.
ZRA has collaborated with Myanmar’s ruling junta and other factions. An official from the Chin National Army noted that the majority of Chin State operates under anti-junta sentiments, pinpointing their military camps in Haka, Thantlang, and Tedim.
Moreover, ZRA has allegedly been involved in protecting farmers engaged in poppy cultivation, amid efforts by various factions to eliminate these fields.
While NSCN-IM denies any involvement in drugs, sources indicate they may collect “sovereignty taxes” from farmers producing opium.
In essence, here’s how the “three warfares” manifest in India:
- Drugs wreaking havoc among youth, fostering addiction, and societal decay.
- Violent factions funded and armed, poised to initiate conflict with India.
- Use of intimidation and terror by these groups to exert control and domination.
The next section will delve into the impact of drugs on the youth in Nagaland and how groups funded by China are coercing Northeast residents into submission.
