Analysis on Voting Trends in Recent Elections

Claims from some Democrats regarding the impact of home-based progressives on Vice President Kamala Harris’s electoral standing have been called into question following a recent analysis.

A Pew Research study released on Thursday indicated that despite high voter turnout, Harris’s support was notably fragile. The research revealed an interesting voting dynamic: when voters were asked about their preferences, the support was almost evenly split – 44% for Trump compared to 40% for Harris.

Interestingly, during the 2020 election, non-voting members leaned towards former President Joe Biden by an 11% margin.

The data from 2024 suggests a significant shift in the political landscape, challenging the previous notion that increased voter turnout benefits the Democrats. According to Pew’s findings, engaged voters aren’t necessarily Democrat idealists burdened by voter ID laws; instead, many appear to lean right or remain indifferent.

The voter turnout in 2024 reached 64%, the highest since 1960, yet 26% of eligible adults still didn’t cast their ballots in the last three national elections.

The study also highlighted Trump’s growing support among diverse ethnic groups, capturing 40% of Asian voters, 48% of Hispanic voters, and 15% of Black voters. Interestingly, among men under 50—a group that favored Biden by 10 percentage points in 2020—Trump has now edged ahead of Harris by a single point.

According to the analysis, 89% of Trump’s 2020 supporters returned to back him again, while Biden retained 85% of his voters. Harris also garnered some support from individuals who sat out the 2020 election but participated in 2024. Among these voters, 54% chose Trump while 42% supported other Democratic candidates. Notably, seven out of ten registered Democrats at home indicated their support for Harris. An analysis from the New York Times pointed out that Trump has maintained strong loyalty among Republican voters.