The bricks are crumbling.
The once-promising economic coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, often referred to as BRICS, has seen both an increase in membership and a rise in internal tensions. Recently, the two dominant powers, Russia and China, have not attended the summit in Rio de Janeiro, leading to speculation about their commitment to the group.
China, under its authoritarian rule, seems to be navigating a challenging phase, marked by issues like a struggling real estate sector, diminished purchasing power, and an alarming youth unemployment rate. With the population growth slowing and an economic downturn looming, the optimistic growth figures of the past now seem quite distant.
This new crisis can be traced back to a peculiar shift initiated by President Xi Jinping, who often vanishes for weeks, revealing updates on his ongoing campaign against corruption. This initiative appears aimed at rooting out “undisciplined” military personnel and any potential political adversaries.
General Miao Hua, a senior admiral who directed the Political and Labor Department of the Central Military Commission, is the latest high-profile official to be removed in this ongoing purge. The changes in political maneuvering also extend to military generals involved in missile and aerospace programs, creating ripples throughout the country’s leadership.
In terms of BRICS, China’s influence appears to foster division rather than unity. Its aspirations to assert greater geopolitical strength have led to a rapid expansion of BRICS membership, bringing in countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Iran—often without regard for their political or economic stability.
China’s actions have reportedly strained its relationship with India as well. By maintaining strong ties with Pakistan—India’s rival—China seems to be deepening economic discord and increasing tension between these two nations.
But it’s not just about China; the other BRICS nations are facing their own issues. Following a potential return of President Trump, the concept of Global South leadership seems to be faltering. The recent Foreign Ministers’ Summit ended without any agreement to elevate Brazil and South Africa’s status in the UN Security Council, showcasing the disarray within the group.
As for the upcoming summit, Vladimir Putin’s absence, likely due to an international arrest warrant related to Ukraine, adds to the gathering’s complications. Intra-regional conflicts persist—like the strained ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or the issues between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile.
Brazil, the host country, isn’t without its challenges either. President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva’s support has dwindled as he navigates a delicate balance in his pro-Russia stance. His domestic approval ratings have plummeted to just 28%, amid a struggling economy characterized by high-interest rates that stifle growth and consumption.
Interestingly, Brazil is also expressing intent to promote a female candidate for the UN Secretary-General position, alongside Lula’s rumored ambitions for another presidential term—perhaps to secure social rights for his constituents.
Despite the aim to counter the dominance of the dollar, BRICS hasn’t fully succeeded. The new development bank, often viewed as a white elephant, lacks the financial muscle of established US-backed entities like the World Bank and the IMF.
The upcoming BRICS Summit seems to be preemptively tagged as a failure. While there might be discussions around artificial intelligence and renewable energy, the likelihood of substantive agreements feels slim—another brick in a shaky wall.
