An anonymous French gambler known as Theo has won a staggering $48 million on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket after correctly predicting Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election with a $30 million bet. I got a huge profit. Now, the elusive “Trump whale” has explained the rationale for his decision.
of wall street journal report The 2024 US presidential election saw not only Donald Trump's historic return to the White House, but also the emergence of a French gambling “whale” who turned his bold predictions into huge profits. The mystery trader, identified only as Theo, bet a total of $30 million in four separate accounts on Polymarket, billed as “the world's largest prediction market,” that Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. bet that he would win.
Teo's risky gamble paid off in spades as the election results confirmed Trump's current vice president, Kamala Harris,'s defeat. The Theo4 Polymarket account alone secured approximately $22 million in profits, while the trader's other three accounts (Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, and Michie) collectively earned another $26 million. This brings Theo's total earnings to an astonishing $48 million, vaulting him to the top of Polymarket's all-time prize money list.
Polymarket, a relatively new crypto-based betting platform, has seen a surge in popularity during this election cycle. Bettors on the platform spent more than $3.7 billion betting on the presidential election, with Teo's large investments accounting for a significant portion of the total. The platform has established itself as a more accurate predictor of election results compared to traditional polls and news outlets.
of wall street journal Theo reports that his bet was not a matter of luck. Instead, he carefully studied polls and believed that most election polls were inaccurate due to the unwillingness of some voters to acknowledge their support for Trump. He turned to other types of polls to find answers.
of WSJ Write:
To solve this problem, Teo argued, pollsters should use so-called neighbor polls, which ask respondents which candidates they think their neighbors will support. The idea is that people may not want to reveal their own preferences, but will reveal it indirectly if asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for. That's it.
Mr Teo cited several public opinion polls conducted in September using the neighborhood method in addition to traditional methods. These polls showed Ms. Harris' approval rating was several percentage points lower than when respondents who were asked who in their neighborhood they would vote for were asked directly which candidate they supported. It was shown that
As for Theo, the French “whale” claims that the large bet was not motivated by political objectives, but purely by financial gain. On a Zoom call, journalhe said, “My purpose is just to make money.” He reiterated this position in a follow-up email, writing, “I have no political intentions whatsoever.”
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Lucas Nolan is a reporter for Breitbart News, covering free speech and online censorship issues.
