Just 72 hours after President Biden threatened to cut off US aid to Israel, the Israeli military announced the withdrawal of troops from southern Gaza to commemorate the six-month anniversary of the massacre on October 7.
Although optics suggest it has capitulated to pressure from the White House for an early end to the operation to annihilate Hamas, Israeli officials say the largest forces, including special forces, remain in Gaza’s second-largest city. After four months of intense fighting, the city of Khan Yunis claims to be taking a planned and much-needed break.
But Jerusalem should be most concerned about whether this is a strategic reset forced by the US or a tactical realignment ahead of a final ground operation to destroy Hamas’ remaining four battalions in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city. What matters is how the enemy perceives Jerusalem’s actions – from Tehran to Beirut to the tunnels under Rafah where Hamas leaders are hiding.
While the world is reeling from Israel’s tragic and misguided attack on the World Central Kitchen support convoy last week, Israeli military and intelligence officials are concerned about two enemies with far more destructive potential. One is obsessed with the possibility of major escalation between Iran and Hezbollah. That’s more than the four Hamas battalions in southern Gaza.
At such a critical time, Israel cannot afford to lose military support from the United States.
Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, had been at the helm of all the fires being set across the Middle East well before October 7th, from southern Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the West Bank to Israel. continues to plan daily attacks. .
The Iranian government is using the regional escalation of the past six months as a cover to rush forward with its nuclear weapons program, betting correctly that no one will pay much attention between concerns about Biden’s re-election and Israel’s multi-pronged wars. ing.
Last week, Israel removed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders from a meeting at its Damascus headquarters, the biggest blow to Iran’s regional counterterrorism coalition since the killing of Qassem Soleimani.
Tactical disagreements in the Gaza Strip are an important part of Iranian strategy, as Iran threatens to retaliate with missile and drone strikes against Israel and Israel needs U.S. support for future developments. This has taken a backseat to physical threats.
Israeli officials claim Sunday’s withdrawal of the Israeli 98th Division was planned long before the WCK tragedy.
Indeed, these soldiers need rest and reconditioning, and Khan Yunis’ military goals have been achieved.
The Israeli military will maintain full control of the corridor separating north and south Gaza, making it difficult for Israel to avoid attacks such as the recent raid on Hamas leaders operating inside Gaza City’s al-Shifa hospital. An easy starting point for special operations.
Meanwhile, Israel presses Egypt for a new security arrangement along the Gaza border, including an end to tunnel smuggling, and ultimately finalizes plans for the evacuation of civilians in Rafah ahead of future ground operations. For this purpose, we need support from the United States.
Tactical adjustments to appease the White House need not signal a change in strategic objectives.
But the problem for Israel is that in the Middle East, perception is reality.
Let’s look at the chessboard from Tehran’s perspective. Biden gave Iran $10 billion in sanctions waivers and free flow of oil to China, provided carrots to Yemen’s Houthis amid constant attacks in the Red Sea, and thwarted Israeli military operations in the south. There is. Lebanon destroys Hezbollah capabilities near Israel’s northern border.
Will a decision be taken this time to back away from destroying Hamas in Gaza?
As long as the Iranian government recognizes that Israel is weak, fully dependent on the United States to carry out military operations, and susceptible to American pressure to reverse its security commitments, the Ayatollah will be bold on all fronts. will likely escalate.
This perception shows that Israel does not have the will or ability to fight back more forcefully in Lebanon, even as daily terrorist attacks force 100,000 Israelis to flee their homes in the north. It will also reassure Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who believes in this.
And most tragically, six months after the attack, it is acknowledged that Israel is unlikely to secure the return of all of its citizens taken hostage by Hamas — at least. Unless you give everything you need to your leader Yahya Sinwar. Rebuild power in Gaza.
What Israeli leaders say and do in the next 48 hours is more important than what they said and did in the past 48 hours.
What is the guarantee that Israel will remain committed to operations toward the ultimate destruction of Rafah and Hamas?
What consequences does Iran promise if it attacks Israeli territory in the coming hours or days?
What operations will Israel carry out on all fronts in the fight against Iran to corner Iran and its proxies?
And what steps will the White House and Congress take to ensure that Tehran believes the United States still supports Israel?
The answers to these questions will determine Israel’s fate, but not the timing of any single action on Gaza.
Richard Goldberg, senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, is a former National Security Council official and senior aide to the U.S. Senate.
