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Donald Trump Leads in 6 Swing States Post-Conviction, Ties Joe Biden in One

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six battleground states, while Biden is tied with Trump in Minnesota, a state that has voted for Democratic candidates since 1976, according to the Emerson College poll.

The poll was one of the first released after a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of 34 charges in his business records trial in May.

Compared to an Emerson poll from April, the survey also shows that Trump’s lead in battleground state polls has changed little since the conviction.

Seven states will determine the president: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, longtime Democratic consultant Doug Sosnick wrote. The New York TimesIf Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of winning 270 electoral votes will be slim.

A June Emerson poll produced the following results:

  1. Arizona: Trump 47% (+4), Biden 43%
  2. Georgia: Trump 45% (+4), Biden 41%
  3. Michigan: Trump 46% (+1), Biden 45%
  4. Minnesota: Trump (-) 45%, Biden 45%
  5. Nevada: Trump 46% (+2), Biden 43%
  6. Pennsylvania: Trump 47% (+2), Biden 45%
  7. Wisconsin: Trump 47% (+3), Biden 44%

poll sampling The poll was conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 12-18, 2024, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Trump is doing well among some of the demographics that supported Biden in 2020. For example, Biden’s support among women is the lowest of any Democrat since 2004. Times Thursday’s analysis found that Trump has an 8-point lead over his opponent in that age group.

Trump’s growing strength among women is reflected in his growing support among black and Hispanic voters, two historically loyal democratic groups whose support for Democrats has fallen to its lowest level in 60 years, according to a Gallup/Siena College poll. Meanwhile, Hispanic and black men are more likely to vote for Trump. I haven’t seen it In American politics since the 1950s.

30% of black men and 11% of black women plan to vote for Trump in 2024. Wall Street journal Polls found: Only 12% of black men voted for Trump in 2020, according to polling data. There are no 2020 polls of black men. In 2020, an Associated Press poll found that 6% of black women said they would vote for Trump. found5 points lower Journal Vote 2024.

Among Hispanics, Trump leads Biden by 5 points (39 percent to 34 percent), up 33 points since 2020 (32 percent to 65 percent). USA Today/Suffolk University Poll Indicated.

Wendell Fsebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former Republican War Room analyst. The Politics of Slave MoralityFollow Wendell “Bat” @WendellHusebø or The truth of society @WendellHusebo.