They say the only two things in life are certain: death and taxes, but those who play fantasy baseball know that early-season overreactions are just as inevitable. It doesn’t matter if the season is half a year and 162 grueling games long, the hot and cold starts of March and April are overanalyzed and knowledgeable veterans are in a water full of friends. While waiting while swimming, the owner of the new fantasy begins to make mistakes to attack. A perfect example of potential overreaction and player overestimation can be found as early as opening day, and if we’re not careful, we could end up with one of the early season victims we see every season. There is a possibility that
There was a lot to like about how Garrett Crochet opened the 2024 MLB season for the White Sox. When he was first drafted, the left-hander was compared to a vintage Chris Sale, and that reputation resurfaced after he held the Tigers to just one run on five hits (no walks) and eight strikeouts in six innings. He positioned his pitches well and was completely dominant with his slider. His next two starts are lined up against Kansas City and Cleveland, and he could be expected to be a popular addition off the waiver wire this week.
Unfortunately, there should be little confidence throughout the season. He certainly has a lot of talent, but we can’t ignore the fact that he missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and pitched just 12/3 innings in 2023. Typical annual innings gains for pitchers are: Between 30 and 50, there should be a lot of concern about how many starts Crochet will start. Even if he dominates in April, he should be one of the highest-sale players in fantasy. If you’re going to take him off waivers, understand that the clock to trade him is already ticking.
Reds designated hitter Nick Martini is another player to watch out for this weekend. Hitting two home runs on Opening Day is a surefire way to get attention, but there are concerns about sustainability, even if half of the games are played at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He’s not just some young newcomer on the scene. Martini is a 33-year-old career minor leaguer currently playing for his fourth team. Although he has shown limited power and little speed throughout his career, his greatest asset is knowing how to draw walks. He’s not going to help anyone this season, even if he’s only looking for OBP help. He could shine for a short time, perhaps thanks to the ballpark and early season adjustments, but wasting free agent tender money on him could be a big mistake.
Do you want to bet on baseball?
In a fantasy baseball season, it can be difficult to navigate hot and cold starts, and the pomp and atmosphere of the first few games can dazzle owners. There’s no need to be negative about every hot start, but having a skeptical eye will certainly help with early season decision-making. Always dig deeper than the initial statistics. Please stay calm and be patient. Snake oil salesmen will come in droves, so just keep calm and you’ll get through it without any problems.
Howard Bender is responsible for the following content. fantasyalarm.com.follow him X @rotobuzzguy Catch him on the award-winning SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel on the “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” weekdays from 6-8 p.m. fantasyalarm.com Get fantasy baseball news and advice.
