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More Americans taking Ozempic will boost the US economy, Goldman says

More widespread use of powerful weight-loss drugs like Ozempic in the United States could boost the economy in the coming years. goldman sachs Strategist.

The bank estimates that weight-loss drugs called GLP-1 agonists could add an additional 1% to gross domestic product over the next 10 years, equivalent to about $360 billion a year.

The idea behind Goldman’s prediction is that poor health weighs on economic growth, primarily because poor health limits economic growth. available workers Working hours also decreased as days absent from work increased as a result of “illness and disability, premature death, and informal caregiving.”

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This photo taken in Paris on February 23, 2023 shows the anti-diabetic drug Ozempic, manufactured by Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk. (Photo by JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

In fact, Goldman said, if the worsening health situation did not affect labor supply, U.S. GDP could potentially increase by more than 10%.

“A key reason for the large upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health has significant economic costs. There are several ways in which poor health can weigh on economic activity. “If conditions improve, economic activity could decline,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius wrote. .

ticker safety last change change %
Lily Eli Lilly & Company 769.54 -0.10 -0.01%
NVO Novo Nordisk A/S 123.45 -1.07 -0.86%

Pharmaceutical companies are scrambling to join what has become almost a two-horse race to make obesity drugs. Novo’s Nordisk, which makes Ozempic and Wigovy, and Eli Lilly, which makes Munjaro, have been working together since last year amid exploding demand for the drug, with celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey and Oprah Winfrey taking the drug. Its popularity skyrocketed. Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

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Depending on clinical trials, similar drugs may come to market.

JPMorgan estimates that the market is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2030.

goldman sachs

A sign posted at the front of Goldman Sachs on May 18, 2016 in Sydney, Australia. (Reuters/David Gray/File Photo/Reuters Photo)

Goldman predicts that by 2028, between 10 million and 70 million Americans will be taking weight loss drugs. This wide range stems from uncertainty regarding clinical trials, health insurance, and available supply.

“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases to this extent and obesity rates decline, there is scope for significant ripple effects throughout the economy,” the analyst note said. “Academic research shows that people who are obese are less likely to work, and when they do, they are less productive.”

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of the economy will grow It would be a 0.4% increase in a scenario with 30 million users and a 1% increase if 60 million Americans were taking these types of drugs.

“Historically, advances in health have led to 10% fewer years of life lost to disease and disability per decade in DM economies, and if health progress advances by 10 years beyond current trends, the U.S. We estimate that healthcare standards could rise by 1%, leading to a 1% increase in GDP,” Hadzius said.

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