With just six weeks until Election Day, polls are making headlines every day, with many of them suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris is well on her way to the White House.
But one Senate Democrat recently expressed concern that the polls may again be underestimating Trump's support. bad than the polls suggest.
“That's ominous. I'm sure it's worrying, but you're working as hard as you can no matter what. My sense is [is] “There's not much we can do beyond what we're already doing,” the Senate Democrat said. He told The Hill Anonymously.
The senator argued that polls don't accurately measure support for the former president because Trump supporters are “embarrassed” to admit they support him.
Of course, anyone who has interacted with Trump supporters knows that they are not shy about publicly identifying themselves as supporters.
Here are the facts: Harris' approval rating is significantly lower than Biden's was four years ago, while Trump's is significantly higher.
Interestingly, Democratic pollster Selina Lake publicly confessed to The Hill her concerns about the polls, but insulted Trump supporters in the process.
“I share the concern that there will be surprises. What reinforces my concern is that when you survey people who didn't vote in 2020 but plan to vote today, they're disproportionately voting for Trump,” Lake told the outlet. “If you look at first-time voters who didn't vote in 2020, they're leaning toward Trump, they're very uninformed, they like his kind of style, and they like Elon Musk, a lot of that stuff. I'm worried about that. I think it's definitely a concern and I think we have to give ourselves enough leeway to make up for that.”
But the problem for Harris and Democrats, as a Senate Democrat acknowledged anonymously, is that polls have historically underestimated Trump's support.
for example, Final polls in battleground states in 2016 He suggested that Hillary Clinton would have won Wisconsin with 7.2% of the vote, Pennsylvania with 2.6% and Michigan with 3.7%.
In the end, she lost all three states. Furthermore, polls had shown Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.2%. In reality, the final margin was 2.1%, and she also lost the Electoral College votes.
The same phenomenon occurred in 2020. Biden Performance was poor In battleground states More nationally than polls suggest — and Trump has exceeded expectations.
How does this apply today? Here are the facts: Harris' approval rating is significantly lower than Biden's was four years ago, while Trump's is significantly higher.
Four years ago at this time, Biden held a 6.9% lead over Trump nationally. Today, Harris leads by just 2.3%. She Worse than Biden In all battleground states: Wisconsin (-5.6%), Pennsylvania (-3.7%), Michigan (-3.4%), Nevada (-7.1%), Ohio (-12.3%), Arizona (-5.4%), North Carolina (-1.3%), and Florida (-7.3%).
Senate Democrats called Harris' performance in the polls “ominous” because current data shows Trump is likely to win in November.
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