California Gubernatorial Race Updates

The race for the California governorship is shifting. A recent poll indicates that the Democratic candidate has notably moved up in the rankings.

Representative Eric Swalwell (D) is currently leading among the Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Steve Hilton, a Fox News contributor, has overtaken Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco.

There’s a sense that California’s Republican base is somewhat fragmented. Democratic voters, too, seem undecided, with a sizable portion of the electorate—21%—still lacking a clear preference. It’s quite possible that the dynamics of the race could change dramatically if more voters make their choices known.

In California’s open primary system, the top two candidates will advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

According to the Emerson College/California Politics Poll, Hilton garnered 17% of voter support, while Swalwell received 14%, which is on par with Bianco’s 14%.

Bianco has faced backlash from Hilton, who criticized him for having knelt with protesters during Black Lives Matter demonstrations and for not participating in a gubernatorial debate.

Former Representative Katie Porter (D) came in third, with 10% support, which is a slight decline from 11% in December 2025. Her campaign has suffered due to negative reports regarding her treatment of staff and some damaging allegations from her ex-husband.

Billionaire Tom Steyer has ramped up advertising in California but remains in fourth place, despite his approval rating rising from 4% to 9% over the last couple of months.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that California Republican voters are fairly split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (37%), adding that Hilton also has a plurality of support from independent voters at 22%.

As for Democratic voters, a clearer picture hasn’t yet emerged. Support for Swalwell stands at 23%, while Porter has 14%, Steyer follows with 12%, and 22% are still undecided.

To add to the political landscape, current California Governor Gavin Newsom just received unfavorable feedback in another poll. His approval rating dropped from 47% to 44%, while his disapproval climbed from 39% to 45%, resulting in a net approval decrease of 9 points.

In terms of President Donald Trump’s approval, there’s a clear trend: 62% of Californians disapprove of him, while only 32% express approval.