President Donald Trump has warned that Russia could face “very severe consequences” in 2025 if they fail to agree on a deal to resolve the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
As we approach four years since the war began, national security experts suggest that Russia is already feeling the pressure from the conflict. This pressure comes from a network of proxy countries that diminishes the effectiveness of U.S. military power while also hampering Russia’s revenue and resources.
“The president’s actions regarding Russia are quite strategic,” Morgan Murphy, a senior public diplomacy advisor to the president’s special envoy for Ukraine in 2025, stated. “If you examine what he’s done with Iran and Venezuela, you’d see that both serve as Russian proxies. Iran, in particular, is a strong ally.”
“They’ve been shipping a lot of drones to Russia,” Murphy added, noting his candidacy for the Republican Senate seat in Alabama. “Venezuela is also a Russian proxy, and Trump is putting pressure on Iran while effectively sidelining Venezuela. That’s bound to force Putin to re-evaluate his stance, especially with a president like Trump willing to act.”
Russia’s war against Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, during President Joe Biden’s term, following the conclusion of Trump’s presidency. While Trump has called for the war to end during his second term, negotiations have been more complicated than anticipated.
White House officials shared that Trump’s motivations stem from a desire to prevent needless loss of lives. They mentioned that he believes there has been “real progress” in reconciling Ukraine and Russia recently.
There were significant, constructive discussions in Abu Dhabi where U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian delegations came together and agreed to a prisoner exchange for the first time in five months. Even though challenges remain, officials insist that these kinds of breakthroughs show that sustained diplomacy can lead to tangible benefits.
In June 2025, Trump took measures against Iran to destabilize their secret nuclear agenda. By December, widespread protests erupted across Iran, where citizens expressed their dissatisfaction with the government amid a crumbling economy.
The Iranian government has responded violently, reportedly resulting in thousands of deaths among its citizens. The Trump administration has issued warnings about potential military action against Iran if the situation doesn’t improve.
On Friday, U.S.-Iran talks were held in Oman as Iran continues to conceal its nuclear aspirations, with military options remaining a possibility on the table. Over recent years, Iran and Russia have strengthened their wartime partnership, with the U.S. and its allies observing Iran’s supply of drones as a key element supporting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, thereby enhancing economic and military ties between the two heavily sanctioned nations.
Retired Air Force General Bruce Carlson suggested that Trump’s actions against Iran and Venezuela demonstrate a methodical U.S. strategy to pressure Russia through its proxies in a bid to end the war in Ukraine.
“In military operations, it’s not just about targeting command centers but also disrupting supply lines,” Carlson explained. “Pressuring Russia’s proxies impacts funding sources for their war efforts. By encouraging Europe to boost NATO spending and move away from Russian oil and gas, we’re directly influencing Russian leadership options.”
Despite signs of movement against Russia, concerns linger about Ukraine’s energy needs and air defense capabilities as winter deepens. Continued U.S. and European support is deemed crucial.
As tensions with Iran escalate, the Trump administration successfully arrested Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January on various drug trafficking charges.
Venezuela has been a loyal ally to Russia, maintaining strong diplomatic ties and allowing for military cooperation. This relationship has resulted in U.S. sanctions targeting Venezuela’s oil sector and firms connected to Russia.
“The removal of Maduro takes away an important ally for Russia in the region, which increases pressure on Iran and jeopardizes Russia’s supply chain for the weapons used against Ukrainian civilians,” commented Carrie Filippetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition.
Moving forward, the United States has leveraged diplomacy to engage both Ukraine and Russia in trilateral talks. In this context, added sanctions threaten nations purchasing Russian energy, which could shake Russia’s confidence in a prolonged conflict.
U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard Newton noted that Trump’s threats could resonate within the Kremlin, suggesting seriousness in his warnings about repercussions if Russia does not work towards peace.
“Deterrence depends on the belief that we will take action,” Newton added, emphasizing that disrupting systems that support Putin’s regime is essential. This includes plans to remove Russian oil supplies from India, which is quite a blow to Russia’s war capabilities.
In February, an agreement with India was reached that seeks to bolster U.S. energy supplies while curbing imports of Russian crude oil. The U.S. is poised to lead global oil production, closely followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Filippetti asserted that for genuine peace to be realized in Ukraine, Russia must confront “real consequences” for its actions. “Vladimir Putin is responsible for this war, marked by numerous atrocities against civilians,” she said.
In a related note, Newton alluded to ongoing sanctions and increased NATO spending, describing these as critical pressure points that could facilitate a peaceful resolution.
Senator Lindsey Graham is advocating for a comprehensive sanctions bill aimed at penalizing those buying Russian energy. Meanwhile, a bipartisan “Shadow Fleet” initiative targets tankers and networks that allow Russia to evade sanctions.
According to Murphy, Trump envisions a practical exit strategy for Russia, which may include restoration of diplomatic relations and some recognition while avoiding formal acknowledgment of territorial claims.
However, the Kremlin has yet to embrace this proposal, prompting questions about how much longer the conflict will persist and the toll it will take on both sides.
Ultimately, Murphy said that the war underscores the misalignment in understanding between U.S. negotiators and the Russian mindset, which has been shaped by historical conflicts and a persistent sense of vulnerability.
On another note, President Zelenskiy mentioned that the U.S. set a June deadline for a deal between Moscow and Kiev, raising concerns ahead of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
