A recent study suggests that immigration enforcement policies under President Trump may lead to a decrease in the U.S. workforce by 15 million people over the next decade.
The analysis from the National Policy Foundation (NFAP) predicts that Trump’s immigration stance could reduce the number of U.S. workers by about 6.8 million by 2028, escalating to 15.7 million by 2035. This shift is expected to cut annual economic growth nearly by a third, negatively influencing living standards across the country.
Moreover, the study indicated that these new immigration policies would likely increase the federal debt by $1.74 trillion and decrease the gross domestic product (GDP) by $12.1 trillion in the upcoming ten years.
The reductions in legal immigration include various measures such as cutting down on refugee admissions, imposing travel bans starting in 2025, and ending programs like Temporary Protected Status and Humanitarian Parole. The changes might also prevent international students from participating in voluntary apprenticeships or STEM Optional Practical Training after graduation, along with potential public charge rules aimed at limiting legal immigration, the researchers noted.
They emphasized that this analysis does not account for the likely significant negative economic effects of restricting U.S. companies’ ability to hire highly skilled foreign workers, which could hinder productivity growth.
The Hill has sought comments from the White House regarding this issue.
Additionally, the Trump administration aims to remove at least 1 million undocumented immigrants yearly. The Department of Labor has cautioned that these mass deportations might result in higher food prices, attributed to a declining labor force in agriculture.
Funding from taxpayers is currently directed towards tightening border and immigration enforcement, including a notable $45 billion commitment from the White House to enhance Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention capabilities.
NFAP warned that as spending rises, so does the national debt. This increasing debt could lead to higher taxes, inflation, and interest rates, ultimately lowering the U.S. standard of living.
The researchers pointed out that workforce growth plays a vital role in economic expansion, improving living standards and helping to manage existing debts. Given the aging U.S.-born population and slowing growth rates, immigration has become a crucial factor in the workforce’s growth within the country.
