Experts believe that the military action taken by the Trump administration, resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, represents a significant setback for Iran, a long-time ally of Venezuela. Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, pointed out that Maduro has long supported Tehran’s anti-imperialist agenda in the region, making his downfall a concerning matter for Iran, especially as it deals with ongoing protests within its own borders.
Brodsky emphasized that the extent of the impact on Iran’s interests hinges on who might take Maduro’s place. He noted that Iran and Hezbollah have been able to operate from Venezuela, engaging in activities like terrorism and drug trafficking throughout Latin America.
He further mentioned that Iran had established military cooperation with Venezuela, particularly involving drones, which may cause concern for the Iranian government. The earlier weakening of Iran’s influence in Latin America, particularly following Bolivia’s shift to a center-right leadership that normalized ties with Israel, compounds this apprehension.
In the past, as the Trump administration increased military pressure in the Caribbean, it was reported that Iran was offering support to Maduro. Brodsky stated, “This will resonate globally. The Iranian regime will monitor developments closely, especially since President Trump had previously threatened Iran’s Supreme Leader during the 12-Day War. Such actions reinforce the perception of Trump as unpredictable and willing to take risks, which, in turn, heightens fears among America’s adversaries and affirms U.S. military credibility.” This, he argued, boosts U.S. deterrence capabilities.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, expressing strong disapproval of what it called a violation of national sovereignty. Potkin Azalmeer, a British-Iranian expert, remarked that the fall of allied dictators boosts morale among the Iranian populace and weakens the Iranian ruling elite.
Azalmeer also pointed out that the collapse of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance,’ which included Syria’s regime and Hezbollah, further threatens the regime’s resources and revenue. He suggested that this instability might tempt some members of the ruling class to defect as the situation stands.
