Center for Safe and Free Societies Remarks on U.S. Plan for Venezuela
The Center for Safe and Free Societies (SFS) issued a warning recently, stating that the effectiveness of the United States’ three-phase strategy to stabilize Venezuela hinges on addressing the military presence of Iran and the actions of Russia and China within the country.
Currently, Venezuela is embarking on a three-step plan aimed at stabilization, recovery, and a transition back to democracy. This initiative follows a U.S. law enforcement operation in Caracas on January 3, which resulted in the capture of Nicolas Maduro and his spouse, Cilia Flores. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently presented the plan to Congress.
During a meeting at the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Ambassador Laura Dogu, Chargé d’Affaires of the Venezuelan Affairs Unit (VAU), reiterated the three-step strategy to “Acting President” Delcy Rodríguez and her brother, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez.
The SFS published a new report titled “After Maduro: The Challenge to Stabilize Venezuela,” indicating that Maduro’s arrest not only showcased U.S. military capabilities but also opened up opportunities for the country’s stabilization and recovery. However, the report cautions that simply removing a dictator won’t dismantle the underlying structure of the regime’s hybrid criminal state. Successful stabilization will thus rely on reducing Iran’s, China’s, and Russia’s influence and also tackling various criminal networks, including disbanding paramilitary groups and illegal mining operations.
SFS elaborated on the complexities involved:
This criminal network resembles institutions and is capable of rapid reorganization. While it is acting with more caution due to U.S. pressure, the infrastructure that allowed Maduro’s survival remains intact.
The primary challenge in Venezuela is not just an individual but a multifaceted criminal governance system intertwined with repression and an illicit economy. Central to this regime is a patronage network backed by the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM) and the Presidential Guard.
A significant concern raised by the SFS is Iran’s involvement in Venezuela, along with its established military presence. They noted this poses a regional security issue, as Iran’s support extends to drones, missiles, and other weaponry. The SFS proposed vigilance regarding unusual activities around the El Libertador military base and the city of Puerto Cabello.
They pointed out, “This system could be dispersed or activated by remnants of the regime, criminal elements, or Iranian proxies, leading to disruptions and increasing the costs associated with the U.S. and its allies’ engagements.” The report highlighted the operational capabilities of Mohajah 6, which underscores the regional security implications.
In recent years, China has aided the Venezuelan regime in building digital management infrastructure, particularly with the platform Patria, which is based on China’s social credit system. Moreover, it is involved in Venezuela’s state-run telecommunications and other government systems.
The SFS suggested that authorities remain alert to signs of continuity in digital control, particularly with updates related to identity services and foreign involvement in security functions.
The group also urged monitoring of diplomatic relations that foster cooperation with Russia, China, and Iran.
Other potential threats to Venezuela’s stability identified by the SFS included the use of cryptocurrency by armed socialist gangs and various paramilitary networks, as well as illicit activities linked to the regime. They stressed that discussions about elections in Venezuela are “premature” without clear signs of stabilization. While Maduro’s removal has opened some political doors, the enduring power structures remain intact.
“Elections could serve more to legitimize an existing regime rather than transition towards democracy,” the SFS stated. They emphasized that electoral processes will have the potential to create democratic governance only if the conditions of coercion and the illegal economy are addressed effectively.
Lastly, the SFS underscored the importance of the Venezuelans’ reactions to any newfound political openness, asking if they will engage in civic participation or wait passively for change.
