Economic pressure from the U.S. on Iran is currently at an unprecedented level, but, interestingly, inconsistent enforcement of sanctions has kept them from achieving their full potential. Miad Maleki, a former Treasury Department sanctions expert, shared his insights in an interview, underscoring that we’re experiencing a unique mix of economic and political forces directed at Iran right now.
Maleki remarked, “Never in the history of our conflict since 1979 have we had the kind of influence we have on Iran today.” This observation comes on the heels of President Donald Trump announcing increased pressure, claiming on Truth Social that the U.S. is “on hard lockdown” regarding the Strait of Hormuz until Iran comes to the negotiating table.
He sees this as a pivotal moment since various measures—sanctions, a naval blockade, and stricter enforcement—are all being applied simultaneously, unlike in past years. This approach zeroes in on Iran’s oil exports and the supply networks, which heightens the risk of significant economic fallout.
If the situation continues, Maleki envisions that Iran’s oil reserves could be depleted in just two to three weeks, potentially forcing a cut in production. The risk of gasoline shortages looms large, too, as Iran is heavily reliant on imports to make up for its domestic shortfall. Not to mention, the country is already losing around $435 million daily; this could end up straining the financial system significantly, making it tough for the government to meet payroll and possibly inviting more instability.
According to Maleki, the heart of the issue lies in Iran’s economy, which he describes as “on the verge of collapse,” a situation worsened by both longstanding sanctions and recent upheaval. He noted that Iran is grappling with triple-digit food inflation, a sharply depreciated currency, and a staggering drop of about 90% in purchasing power, which could lead to annual oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion.
Maleki asserted that Iran’s economy is inherently tied to the Strait of Hormuz, referring to any blockage of this critical waterway as an act of “economic self-sabotage.” While countries in Asia—like Japan and China—are currently somewhat secure due to their reserves, the ongoing reliance on the strait remains a concern, especially since 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies to nations like India and South Korea flow through it.
Domestically, the situation appears dire. Iran imports between 30 million and 60 million liters of gasoline each day just to keep up with the shortfall. Maleki warned that any severe gasoline shortages could significantly disturb the status quo, as past fuel shortages have sparked public unrest.
The U.S. naval blockade aimed at Iran’s oil exports is tightening, causing additional economic strains. Treasury Department officials have ramped up their enforcement efforts through what they label the “Economic Rage” campaign, targeting Iran’s revenue-generating capabilities.
The strategy revolves around systematically reducing Iran’s ability to generate and move funds. Trespasses into maritime trade via this blockade specifically target oil exports, the backbone of Iran’s income. Furthermore, global financial pressures are mounting as the Treasury has alerted banks in regions like China and the UAE that any trades with Iran could result in secondary sanctions.
Since the enforcement drive began in 2025, over a thousand sanctions have already been enacted, emphasizing a more aggressive stance. However, if the blockage on exports persists, storage capacities at Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil terminal, could quickly reach their limits, halting production entirely.
According to new analyses, while the blockade is hindering substantial shipments, some Iranian-linked vessels still continue their operations. The conversation around the efficacy of these sanctions remains complex, with Maleki expressing that fluctuating enforcement under various U.S. administrations has limited the overall impact.
He pointed out that while previous sanctions campaigns under both the Obama and Trump administrations had varying levels of enforcement, the current climate combines swift enforcement with lasting sanctions that genuinely restrict Iran’s oil exports more effectively than before. He stressed the need for continuous, stringent enforcement, especially targeting foreign banks and businesses that engage in trade with Iran, to maximize pressure.
While alternative routes and lifelines for the Iranian regime seem unlikely, he cautioned that in the coming weeks and months, Iran could not only face gasoline shortages but also severe banking issues impacting payments for government and military personnel. Maleki underscored that the economic collapse could incite new protests, raising questions about the willingness of security forces to sustain violent crackdowns amidst their own potential grievances.
