Why The Public Doesn’t Trust Biden on Inflation

These are the levels of trust and acceptance expected in the economy. Deep recession.

“Since last year, only Bush has received more trust from the public than Biden. At the end of Biden’s second term, in the midst of the Great Recession, only 34% of Americans expressed confidence in his ability to handle the economy,” Gallup’s analysis said.

The rose-tinted glasses of progressive critics

Progressive commentators are in an uproar over these polls, as they see them as irrational and say Biden’s economy is far ahead of his peers. Better than people give it credit forTo support this, they point to the avoidance of a recession, the fact that unemployment remains low, positive real income growth during Biden’s term in office, a thriving stock market, and strong economic growth.

“But by normal standards, the U.S. economy is do not have “It’s a bad situation. In fact, we’re doing a lot better than most other countries in the world,” says Paul Krugman. Recently claimed.

There is much to counter this optimistic view of the economy. unemployment That’s low, but it was even lower during Trump’s presidency. Real income There has been an increase during Biden’s term, but it has been barely a rise. Income Increase Not only does it lag behind what Americans saw under the Trump administration; Late Historical average. The economy is growing and the stock market is rising, but household net worth is Late Trump’s growth pace, adjusted for inflation: Household net worth increased by just 0.7% During the first three years of the Biden administration, that figure was 16%, compared with 16% during the first three years of the Trump administration.

As you all know, Inflation is the specter haunting the Biden administration.According to an Economist/YouGov poll, 74% of Americans rate inflation as “very important.” “Jobs and the economy” issues come in second with 69%, with almost all other issues far behind. When asked what the most important issue facing the country is, 25% say inflation, well ahead of all other issues. Jobs and the economy comes in second with 12%, followed by immigration with 10%.

Yet if we look at the opinion outlets of the progressive establishment, this basic fact continues to be in incredible denial. For example, Slate recently ran the following article: “Inflation Will Not Doom Joe Biden.” Once you get past the very strange debate about whether Biden’s economy is as bad as Jimmy Carter’s, and the now-familiar complaints that Americans are just delusional about the economy, you’ll find the even stranger assertion that inflation isn’t the problem because it’s “functionally over.”

Inflation isn’t over, functionally or otherwise. It rose sharply in the first quarter of this year. The Fed’s preferred barometer, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.2%, and core PCE inflation rose 3.6%. These measures were growing at less than 2% at the end of last year, so The public has been witnessing accelerating inflation in recent months..

Not surprisingly, the persistence and recent flare-ups of inflation have raised questions about the government’s ability to contain it. According to a New York Fed survey of consumers, Five-year inflation expectations have risen to a high of 3%. There have been blowbacks in early 2021 and summer 2022. One-year inflation expectations have fallen slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%, but are still well above the 2.5% recorded at the end of 2019.

Falling into the extremism of the progressive Democratic Party

One might expect that an administration seeking reelection would pursue policies likely to bring inflation under control. Biden appears to be pushing policies that will worsen inflation.These include student loan “forgiveness,” subsidies for homebuyers, green energy mandates, and immigration programs to boost demand for consumer goods and housing. His favorite response to inflation is to attack corporate greed and complain that candy bars are getting smaller and ice cream cones are getting more expensive.

One of the reasons is The Democratic Party’s Leftward Shift Over the past 20 years. According to a Gallup poll In 2004, 26% of Democrats described themselves as conservative or very conservative on economic issues. By 2014, that percentage had fallen to 21%. But in this year’s poll, that percentage had plummeted to 5%. The number describing themselves as moderate was 44% in 2004 and is still 44% today. But the number describing themselves as liberal or very liberal has jumped from 28% to 49%.

President Joe Biden in the Rose Garden at the White House on September 1, 2023. (Adam Schultz/The White House via Flickr)

as a result, Biden would have to fire more than half his party members. He cannot adopt a moderate policy aimed at controlling inflation. If he were to adopt a conservative pro-growth policy aimed at controlling inflation, Reduce inflation by increasing the supply side of the economyIf he runs, he will lose almost complete support from his own party. Whereas it was once possible to form a coalition of conservative and moderate Democrats to support his policies, those groups now have little parity with the remnants of the left who would make up the majority of his activists and vocal supporters.

According to a poll Many of Biden’s supporters say he’s done a great job. On inflation and the economy: According to an Economist/YouGov poll, 73% of Biden supporters support efforts to fight inflation, as do 59% of self-described liberals and 67% of Democrats. In the last election, 30% of Biden supporters said they “strongly supported” efforts to fight inflation, as did 28% of liberals and 29% of Democrats.

Compare that to the general public, where Biden’s approval rating on inflation is just 32 percent, and among self-described moderates, 34 percent. Only 19% of independents They say they support Biden on the issue of inflation.

Biden’s economic policy failures are likely rooted in a disconnect between public opinion and policy. Increasingly partisan and extreme views He’s part of the left-wing majority in his party, who argue that inflation isn’t that bad, that it’s already over, and that Biden has managed to get past it anyway.

Given these political dynamics, it is likely that Americans expect inflation to continue. I don’t think Biden is going to do anything to curb that..