Larry Hogan’s (R-Md.) Senate campaign ad targets former President Donald Trumphe has signaled friendships with the liberal wing of the Republican Party and boasted about his COVID response as governor, which he may absolutely need to win.
In 31 second adIn it, the popular former governor praises his father, the late Republican Congressman Lawrence Hogan, for his tireless efforts to impeach Republican President Richard Nixon. Then he praises the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for infamously thwarting his party’s attempt to repeal Obamacare. Then Hogan brags about Maryland’s coronavirus response (which was lackluster, but not as bad as others) and ends with a line from Democratic hero John F. Kennedy: “Party loyalty sometimes demands too much.”
The ad is aimed at the top Republican candidates, signaling to Washington conservatives that Trump is not on their side and to liberal Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine that Trump intends to join them even if Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah drops out.
A solid vote for lower taxes or foreign wars is fine, but what about a tough vote like opposing bad judges?
Republican National Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines of Montana has been urging Hogan to give himself more room to attack Republicans, but the ad may come as a surprise to some of his colleagues. After all, Hogan left the governor’s mansion as one of the most popular governors in the country. What good would he gain from attacking conservatives now? Why alienate Republicans in eastern and western Maryland who need to turn out to vote?
The reality of Maryland politics, however, is not so simple. Every Maryland Republican and conservative that The Blaze News spoke to agreed that this new tactic is crucial to Hogan’s victory.
First of all, it’s a math problem. There simply aren’t enough Republicans in Maryland. For example, Barack Obama won the Old Line State by more than 25 points over McCain, the closest a Republican has won since. Obama beat Romney by more than 26 points, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by a narrow margin, and Biden won the state in 2020 by a whopping 33.21 points.
“Only 23 percent of voters in our state are Republican,” Hogan said. explanation “In May, we need to win almost every voter, almost every independent voter and about 30% of Democrats.”
It’s a tough task, but he’s done it before. Early polls have Hogan leading his opponent by 20 points, too far to allow his party to neglect its nominee. But running for Washington, D.C., is different from running for Annapolis. With control of the Senate narrowly divided, Democrats will try hard to portray a vote for Hogan as a vote for outgoing Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (one of the most unpopular people in America) and Trump’s policies.
“Maryland has a unique demographic,” one Hogan alum told The Blaze News. “The ratio of Democrats to Republicans is 2-to-1, so even if you got 100% of the Republican vote, you’d still lose badly. Even independents in Maryland are not the norm. An independent in Ohio is basically a Maryland Republican, politically.”
That means that in addition to winning over Republicans and Maryland’s particular crop of independents, the governor would need about a third of Democrats to vote for Biden in order to flip to the Republicans in the Senate elections — a tall order by any standard.
But is a Hogan win worth it to conservatives? That’s a hard question to answer. Of course, Senator Hogan is expected to vote with the Republicans more than half the time, but if a Democrat is present, he is expected to vote against the Republicans nearly 100% of the time. But what do Republican votes mean for useful policy other than strengthening a party leadership already hostile to the right?
Hard votes for tax cuts and foreign wars are fine, but what about tough votes against bad judges or resisting the Democrats’ culture war attacks?
“The very idea of Hogan running is ridiculous,” one longtime Senate observer told The Blaze News. “He’ll vote like a Democrat, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee will waste its money by electing Hogan instead of electing a Republican who is actually a threat, like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.”
“Hogan keeps the Republican Party in the status quo. For status quo vigilantes like McConnell, that’s good enough. For the rest of us, it means we continue to lose momentum on everything that really matters.”
In that case, staying in water is better than actively drowning. And Maryland won’t elect someone worthy of Hogan this decade. That’s an easy call. The harder question is whether it’s worth the resources it would take away from competitive elections elsewhere. Republicans are betting yes. Conservatives are a bit more wary.
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In other news
No winner yet in Liberal Party caucus chair presidency
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) is still engaged in a tough primary campaign against former Navy SEAL Bob Maguire, pitting conservative activists against a coordinated effort by President Trump, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Republican National Committee Chief Operating Officer Chris LaCivita.
“If he’s re-elected, Bob Goode will betray Virginia, just like he did to me,” Trump said at Maguire’s “online rally” on Monday night.
As of the last update, just after midnight, Maguire maintained the slight lead he had held for much of the night, with about 95% of the votes counted, just under 330 votes separating the two.
“There are still provisional ballots to be counted, ballots postmarked as of June 18th. [Wednesday] Fridays also count,” the Virginia Public Access Project said. Tweeted “In other words, we’ll likely have to wait until at least Friday before this race is officially decided.”
Critics have tried to portray the race as the former president versus the Freedom Caucus, but much of it has been personal: Goode’s relationship with Trump soured after he endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ bid for the Republican nomination.
Goode’s relationship with McCarthy went from tense to doomed after Goode voted to remove him as chairman, and his relationship with Trump adviser LaCivita dates back to years of Old Dominion political strife and includes resentment among staffers. But as head of the Freedom Caucus, Goode has long enjoyed strong support from the type of conservative activists who are sure to show up in a hotly contested primary.
Conservatives are outraged, and articles leading up to the election quoted conservative activists and Goode’s supporters as saying they felt Trump had gone too far in his attacks on Goode.
The relationship between Republican candidates and conservative lawmakers has never been as close as the mainstream media makes it out to be. Freedom Caucus alumni Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.Y.) and Mick Mulvaney (S.C.) served as chief of staff to Trump during his first term in the White House, while the Freedom Caucus opposed Trump’s spending bills and fought the administration over the details of the bitter fight to repeal Obamacare. Before his relationship with former caucus chairman Rep. Jim Jordan warmed over the issue, Trump called for a primary run against the Ohio Republican.
The fire rises
This section is often used to say something wise about societal breakdowns and the amazing efforts to fix them. This video Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband welcome ‘expert groomer’ Jonathan Van Ness from ‘Queer Eye for the Straight Guy’ 20th Anniversary Reception In praise of the show.
It’s completely absurd. Look at your leaders (and their priorities).
ANDREA RENAULT/AFP via Getty Images, Tasos Katopodis/GLAAD via Getty Images
