noTwo weeks after its surprise invasion of Russia, Ukraine is struggling to balance seizing territory across the border at Kursk with losing territory in the central city of Donetsk, the heart of the eastern front.
On Friday, Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Shirushky, claimed they were advancing up to two miles a day inside Russia, while Moscow’s forces have advanced about three miles this month as the Kremlin bets big on capturing the centre of Pokrovsk.
For many Ukrainians, the two battles are linked, with the ultimate outcome uncertain. Russia was expected to move significant forces from the east to defend Kursk. But Hannah Shelest, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said that while Ukraine’s bold offensive “went better than expected,” the reality is that “Russia probably hasn’t moved as many forces from the east as was expected.”
The U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, said on Thursday that only “a small proportion of Russian irregular forces” They have been redeployed to Kursk, and the Kremlin is “likely to be extremely reluctant to withdraw combat Russian troops near priority sectors such as Pokrovsk,” he said.
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Ukraine of using a U.S.-made Himars rocket to blow up a strategic bridge north of the Kursk city of Grushkovo, seven miles north of the international border, a move that could lead to the isolation of part of Russian territory along the front line southwest of the village.
Meanwhile, in Pokrovsk, authorities are stepping up evacuations of civilians, and the city’s military administrator, Serhiy Dobryak, warned that Russian forces were “almost approaching” the city, raising concerns about its future.
Until a year ago, Pokrovsk was considered safe enough to serve as a regional hub where journalists and aid workers could stay. Road and rail links the Dnipro capital with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Taking it would effectively cut in two the part of Donetsk Oblast that is in Ukrainian hands.
On Friday evening, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also linked the fighting, explaining that the Kursk invasion was “aimed at disrupting Russian military logistics and depleting their reserves,” adding that President Shirsky had briefed him on “defensive measures in Donbas,” including Pokrovsk, and “advancement in the Kursk region.”
While soldiers in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region are pleased with their early success across the border at Kursk, it’s not hard to find some who question the overall strategy, such as Oleksiy, a soldier in an infantry unit who didn’t want to reveal his unit or call sign.
“We have to defend what we have. Attacking Kursk would take away good soldiers from Pokrovsk. Even if some Russian troops were diverted, it would just shift the problem of numbers elsewhere,” he said, before adding in a typically Ukrainian way: “My mother always told me: ‘Stand your ground.'”
Rumors persist that Colonel Emil Ishkurov, the popular commander of Ukraine’s 80th Brigade, currently involved in the invasion of Kursk, was relieved of his post in late July because he opposed an invasion of Russia and was unsure whether his unit was up to the task. At the time, soldiers from the unit made a public appeal to have him reinstated, but it was rejected.
Estonia, whose intelligence officials best analyze Russian intentions, said Friday there was no indication Moscow had yet mustered enough forces to launch an all-out counterattack on Kursk, and that its response remained inadequate, possibly reflecting its prioritization of Donbas.
“There are no indications yet that the Russian military has sufficient forces and geographical area to carry out such a significant action. [a counterattack]”The actions taken are of a defensive nature, establishing a defensive line and moving troops,” Lieutenant Colonel Mathias Puusep, deputy chief of staff of the Estonian Defence Forces, said in a statement.
But there was one ominous sign of Russian retaliation on Saturday: a ballistic missile exploded in the center of Sumy, the Ukrainian city closest to the border incursion – the second time the city has been attacked in nearly a week. Shocking footage of fires and burned cars was posted to social media, and local officials said two civilians were injured.
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Sumy, a city of about 250,000 people, was bustling and lively in the summer heat, despite the sound of distant Russian glide bomb explosions growing louder over the past week. But hospitals are becoming overwhelmed by the wounded on the front line, and a call for blood donations was made a week ago to help treat wounded soldiers. It took an hour to gather the required amount.
The city is also taking in about 4,000 people who have fled rural areas along the northern border, many of whom plan to rent apartments.
Meanwhile, just a handful of civilians and little functioning infrastructure remains in the border area six miles from the border. One shop with a smashed window still sold food, but most stores were boarded up. With no market supplies, the aid agency Global Empowerment Mission has been distributing about 26,000 meals a month, visiting frontline villages weekly to distribute to the remaining residents.
But others, like Valentina Mykolaivna, a pensioner from Unakivka, insist on staying in Ukraine. She says she has no intention of leaving the country to join one of her three daughters: “I’m too old now, I can’t start over. I don’t want to leave what I have.”
Valentina is observer The area around her house is desolate – it’s a hard place to let go – but she has a fine brick house, geese and chickens in the garden and a field out back where goats are tethered, and ripe sweet corn, beets and apples grow. It’s too dangerous to go to church, she says, but it’s quiet when we visit.
The 62-year-old stresses that the Ukrainian military has done the right thing, but for her the risks are real. “It’s a good idea. They pushed them back. Let them stay where they are. Why do they want to come here? Don’t they have enough land?” she asks.
She then bent down and plucked a large watermelon from the Ukrainian soil and handed it over as a gift.
