Potential Declines in College Football Programs for 2026

College football can be ruthless. Maintaining success, especially at a high level, year after year is no easy task. Programs that effectively use the transfer portal to refresh their rosters might find it easier, but sometimes those changes don’t click, leading to a dip in performance after a solid season.

With that in mind, let’s explore a few programs that might face setbacks in 2026. For some teams, this could mean experiencing significantly more losses than the previous year, while for others, it might result in below .500 records.

Missing out on a chance to defend their championship could become a reality for some of these teams.

Take the Commodores, for example. Last year, they almost missed the College Football Playoff, but a victory over LSU propelled them to No. 10 in the rankings. Vanderbilt also triumphed over Tennessee in Knoxville, wrapping up a 10-2 season (6-2 in the SEC) — their first win against Tennessee since 2018 and a historic ten-win finish for the program.

The secret behind their success? Quarterback Diego Pavia made quite the impact, earning a spot on the All-SEC First Team, winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and finishing just behind Fernando Mendoza in the Heisman voting.

But now, Pavia has moved on to the NFL, preparing for training camp with the Baltimore Ravens after going undrafted.

The likely candidate to fill Pavia’s shoes is true freshman Jared Curtis, who surprisingly chose Vanderbilt over several other options. But let’s be real — stepping into the SEC as a freshman is no small feat, especially with a daunting nine-game conference schedule this year. The Commodores face back-to-back challenges with Auburn and Georgia, plus a November home stretch against Alabama and Tennessee, with a game at Florida sandwiched in between.

Looking at the Buckeyes, the offensive outlook seems promising. Quarterback Julian Sane returns after a season where he delivered 32 touchdown passes and had an impressive 77% completion rate. With star receiver Jeremiah Smith catching passes and running backs Bo Jackson and Isaiah West back for another go, plus a seasoned offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, they might be setting up for a powerful season.

However, their defense is where concerns arise.

Ohio State has lost significant talent over recent seasons. J.T. Tuimorow, Cody Simon, Lathan Ransom, Jack Sawyer, and Ty Hamilton were all picked in the 2025 NFL Draft. Last year saw three Buckeyes — Arbel Reese, Sonny Styles, and Caleb Downs — taken in the first round. With defensive tackle Caden McDonald and cornerback Davison Igbinosan also drafted, it’s clear the defensive line has undergone major changes.

While there’s potential within the roster, Matt Patricia needs to bring this unit up to speed quickly. Can they reclaim their defensive prowess? That might be a tall order, especially if the offense struggles to maintain its rhythm in 2026.

Then there’s Ole Miss, whose dream season ended with a close 31-27 loss to Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, just shy of the title match.

The Rebels, now navigating coaching changes with Pete Golding on the sidelines and Lane Kiffin moving on to Baton Rouge, are left wondering if they can recreate that dream season. Some key players are sticking around. They pulled off wins against Tulane and Georgia in the College Football Playoff, despite losing standout pass rusher Princewill Umanmieren to Kiffin. Defensive talents like Sugar Bowl MVP Will Echols, linebacker Santalin Perkins, and cornerbacks Antonio Kite and Jaylon Braxton are returning, adding to hopes for a solid defense.

Offensively, perhaps the biggest news is the return of Trinidad Chambliss, who finally sorted out eligibility issues. Doak Walker Award finalist Qwan Lacey will join him in the backfield, supported by guards Delano Townsend and Patrick Kutas, plus center Brycen Sanders on the offensive line.

Yet, the schedule looks particularly challenging this year. Last season’s relatively easier slate won’t be repeated in 2026. Kiffin’s return to Vought-Hemingway for SEC play is sure to be a highlight, as is a trip to Florida the following week. Not to mention a daunting matchup against Texas right before Halloween.

With additional games against Auburn, Georgia State, and a trip to Oklahoma State, they’ve got their work cut out for them.

Duke surprised many by reaching the ACC title game despite a five-loss season, buoyed by a complicated tiebreaker. They continued their success, ultimately beating Virginia to claim the ACC Championship.

However, life at Duke could become tougher in 2026. Controversy surrounded quarterback Darian Mensah, who transferred to Miami. Incoming transfer Walker Eggett from San Jose State, while experienced, will need to up his game — he finished with a 59% completion rate and nine interceptions last season. To sustain last year’s level of play, the offense cannot afford to regress.

If that doesn’t happen, the responsibility will fall on Manny Diaz’s defense, which struggled last season, ranking 14th in the ACC in points allowed per game and 15th in yards. Can new recruits, including defensive backs Evan Smith, Dylan Flowers, and Patrick Smith-Young, bring about necessary improvements?

Carrying the weight of a college football championship is no small feat.

After a remarkable championship run, Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers now have the challenge of replicating that success. They’ve certainly seen some talent enter through the transfer portal, replacing players like Josh Hoover, who transferred from TCU, and wide receiver Nick Marsh from Michigan State.

Defensive end Tobi Osunsanmi and cornerback AJ Harris also switched programs to strengthen a defense that retains six starters from last year’s title squad.

With Cignetti at the helm, winning seems to be part of the equation, but starting the season perched atop the standings often leads to challenges. If Hoover struggles with turnovers — he threw 13 interceptions last year after 11 in 2024 — it could signal tough times ahead.