The assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist during a U.S.-Israeli military operation has sparked worries that a compromised regime might struggle to maintain its uranium resources and advance its nuclear capabilities, thereby raising proliferation risks.
Experts suggest that while Iran may find new personnel to fill the gaps, restoring the depth of expertise lost will be a far tougher challenge. Additionally, certain undisclosed facilities could store potentially hazardous materials and knowledge at risk.
“Currently, the likelihood of nuclear terrorism or nuclear materials entering the black market is low,” noted Kelsey Davenport, director of nuclear nonproliferation policy. “Non-state actors would face significant barriers in acquiring enriched uranium, and they likely lack the means to convert it into weapon-grade forms necessary for nuclear warheads.”
However, if the existing Iranian government were to collapse or face major internal conflict, the chances that nuclear materials could be stolen or redirected to hidden sites would increase.
Davenport also pointed out that there’s a risk of Iranian nuclear scientists potentially selling their knowledge to state or non-state entities looking to develop nuclear weapons.
The past two years have seen several high-profile figures linked to Iran’s nuclear and defense capabilities killed, coinciding with U.S. and Israeli assaults on its nuclear sites. For example, Hossein Jabal Ameryan, director of the National Defense Innovation Research Institute, lost his life during military operations in 2026.
The full ramifications of these operations on Iran’s nuclear weaponization capabilities remain unclear, as emphasized by Jim Lamson, a senior researcher at a nonproliferation institute. While management and personnel may shift, the expertise of those who died is irreplaceable. The patterns of assassination have induced a chilling effect, making future scientists hesitant to engage in similar programs, out of fear for their safety.
Lamson highlighted that many targeted individuals worked in crucial sectors of Iran’s nuclear apparatus, particularly in areas critical for developing fissile materials, such as highly enriched uranium. The destructive attacks on facilities have compounded its challenges, with at least eleven weapons-related sites being attacked since 2024.
In a broader view, despite recent military actions, Iran still retains a significant amount of enriched nuclear material. The country claims to have over 200 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% in Isfahan, which, if further purified, could be enough for several nuclear weapons.
While some of this material lies “under rubble” from prior assaults and is not expected to be recovered soon, there’s always a chance Iran has additional undisclosed sites that might elude U.S. and Israeli knowledge. The ultimate impact of these military operations on Iran’s ability to produce nuclear arms is yet to be determined.
