A new CNN data analysis indicates a slight uptick in Republican support among Black voters, while Democrats still hold a significant, though declining, lead. This reflects shifts in voter support and party affiliation compared to past data.
Harry Enten, CNN’s Chief Data Analyst, mentioned that busy. A recent CNN report outlined how President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are making strides in attracting Black voters compared to earlier trends. Trump’s approval among African Americans has risen from 12 percent during his first term to 16 percent now, reflecting a slow but steady increase, according to Enten.
“President Trump and the Republican Party are gradually diminishing the long-standing advantage that Democrats have enjoyed with Black voters,” Enten observed, adding, “He’s gaining ground and support among African Americans.” He emphasized that Republicans view this shift as significant, given the historical strength of the Democratic Party in this demographic.
The analysis also examined broader trends in party allegiance. During Trump’s first term, Democrats had a 63-point lead in party identification among African Americans. Citing both approval ratings and party identification numbers, Enten stated that the gap has narrowed by roughly 12 points, marking the smallest Democratic lead in Gallup’s records from 2006 to 2021.
Enten pointed out the possible electoral consequences, especially in competitive areas. He highlighted Southern states like Georgia, where even minor shifts in voter demographics could significantly influence tight races. He suggested that this trend “could have substantial implications and may give Republicans an edge in various Southern regions during the midterm elections.”
CNN analysts also examined the 2024 election and noted Trump’s performance among Black voters as historically strong for a Republican candidate. Meanwhile, Democrats have had their weakest performance among that group in a generation. Pre-election polls indicated that Vice President Kamala Harris led by 63 points among African American voters. Current data shows a nearly identical 62-point lead, suggesting that Democrats have yet to regain the ground they lost this cycle.
“The Republican Party is retaining the gains it achieved among African Americans in 2024,” Enten summarized, concluding with, “Donald Trump’s Republican Party is making inroads among African Americans that, quite frankly, the party hasn’t experienced in a generation.”
This comes as issues surrounding elections are capturing national attention. On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana vs. Curry, concluding that Louisiana’s racially-based zoning map was an unconstitutional gerrymander. Justice Samuel Alito, speaking for the majority, noted that while Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act suggests considerations of race in redistricting are valid, it does not endorse Louisiana’s application of race in this instance and does not support the controversial map.
The ruling received various responses from prominent Democrats. Former President Barack Obama stated that the decision “effectively undermines key elements of the Voting Rights Act,” while former Vice President Kamala Harris remarked that it “rolls back the fundamental principle of equality and fairness in our voting system.” New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani expressed concerns that the ruling “risks disenfranchising millions of Americans along racial lines,” echoing sentiments from various Democratic officials who believe the ruling could weaken protections for minority voters.
