Numerous think tanks and analysts in Washington have expressed concerns that the GOP’s proposed tax and spending cuts disproportionately benefit wealthy individuals rather than working-class Americans.
One organization warns that low-income earners could end up in worse financial situations, especially when considering the combined effects of lowered interest rates and reduced profits.
An analysis from Penn Wharton indicates that individuals in the second income quintile, earning between $17,000 and $51,000 annually, would see their income shrink by a net of $705 due to the proposed tax changes.
This group’s financial situation is expected to worsen over the years. A typical revenue decrease of 1.5% in 2026 could grow to a 2% drop by 2033, translating to a total profit loss of $1,200.
In contrast, middle-income earners, those making between $51,000 and $93,000, are projected to enjoy a profit of $845 in 2026. Meanwhile, top earners could exceed $468,000 that same year.
The findings from Penn Wharton align with the official projections from the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), which focus solely on the tax impacts without factoring in social program benefits from the federal government. However, the latter’s conclusions echo the findings from Penn Wharton.
According to the JCT, the second income quintile will see a tax cut of $24 billion, while middle earners will benefit from a $50 billion reduction. The fourth quintile will receive a cut of $100 billion, and the top earners will enjoy a $385 billion cut.
The analysis suggests that lower-income individuals are likely to depend more on social programs like food stamps and federal healthcare, which are being targeted in the GOP’s budget plan, ultimately leading to income declines for these groups compared to wealthier individuals.
Other analytic organizations in Washington have voiced similar concerns about how the benefits of the proposed tax changes appear skewed toward the affluent.
A statement from the Center for Progress in America highlights that the House Republicans’ budget and tax plans could strip healthcare from nearly 14 million individuals by 2034 and raise costs for many working families.
Economist Dean Baker at the Centre for Economic Policy Research pointed out that legislation allowing for carried interest deductions—tax breaks that primarily benefit hedge funds and private equity managers—remains in place, despite previous calls for reform.
The GOP proposal could also result in millions losing public insurance coverage, with projections indicating that in 2028 alone, access to Medicaid and children’s health programs might be significantly reduced. Additionally, changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and a failure to extend ACA subsidies are expected to affect coverage for more individuals.
Moreover, there might be restrictions on access to food stamps as the program is set to introduce work requirements, potentially reducing enrollment by approximately 3 million to 3.5 million people, according to earlier estimates.
As it stands, the Republican bill is still in the works. On Friday, members of the Budget Committee pushed for abrupt cuts, igniting frustration from President Trump.
In a social media post, Trump urged the Republican Party to move forward decisively: “The Republican Party doesn’t need a ‘Grand Stander’. Stop talking and get it done!”
Five Republicans—Josh Bretzin from Oklahoma, Chip Roy from Texas, Ralph Norman from South Carolina, Andrew Clyde from Georgia, and Lloyd Smucker from Pennsylvania—voted against the measures. Smucker expressed hope for a quick resolution to the issues raised and anticipated another vote on Monday.
