Voters who have already cast their ballots, along with those heading to the polls Tuesday, are considering an economy marked by higher everyday expenses, steep home prices and a strong stock market.
Donald Trump campaigned in 2024 on promises of a stronger economy and a brighter financial future. Nearly two years into his second term, however, fuel costs have climbed, inflation has picked up and buying a home remains costly. Those pressures are putting Republican promises to make life more affordable under scrutiny during the midterms.
Three key economic measures offer a glimpse of the forces shaping voters’ decisions as control of Congress—and the direction of Trump’s agenda—hangs in the balance.
Inflation keeps affordability in focus
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year through September and 0.6% from August, according to the latest inflation report. The Consumer Price Index measures a wide range of household costs, from food and housing to medical care and transportation.
Trade policy has added to some expenses. A New York Federal Reserve study estimated that Trump’s tariffs increased prices by about 2.9 percentage points across the consumer goods researchers examined. Around a third of the increase involved U.S.-made products, as manufacturers faced higher costs for imported parts and materials.
The effects differ from one household to another. The figures show how prices have shifted, but they don’t tell us whom voters will blame.
Energy costs are also squeezing households and businesses, with conflicts in Iran and Ukraine disrupting global fuel supplies. U.S. Energy Information Administration data show diesel rising from roughly $3.45 a gallon in early 2025 to a peak of $6.53 in October 2026.
That increase reaches well beyond drivers. Trucks, freight trains and farm equipment all depend on diesel, and higher fuel bills can raise the cost of moving groceries, packages and building materials. Businesses may absorb some of those costs, or pass them on to customers.
Gasoline has added to the pressure, too. Prices jumped 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of that month’s overall increase in the Consumer Price Index.
Housing remains out of reach for many buyers
For people hoping to buy a home, affordability remains a major hurdle. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year mortgage rate at 7.24% on Oct. 29. The latest median price for an existing home was $417,500 in September, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Mortgage rates affect monthly payments, while home prices determine how much buyers need to borrow. Together, they make entering the market difficult for many households.
Rising home values can be good news for people who already own property, though accessing that wealth generally means selling or borrowing against the home. Renters and first-time buyers feel the costs more directly.
The figures capture some of the expenses voters have faced, but they can’t predict how people will judge the economy—or which party they’ll hold responsible—as election results come in.
