More than $1.2 billion has been traded on Kalshi markets tied to the 2026 midterm elections, exceeding the platform’s trading volume during the 2024 presidential election year, according to company data.
That level of activity is notable for a midterm election, which typically draws less national attention than a presidential race.
Polls offer a snapshot of voter sentiment. Prediction markets, by contrast, can move as traders respond to debates, fundraising, endorsements and breaking news, giving campaigns and political observers a changing picture of expectations.
Traders are putting money on the fight for Congress
The stakes include whether President Donald Trump will face a Congress inclined to advance his agenda or one more likely to pursue investigations into his administration.
Kalshi users are trading on individual House, Senate and gubernatorial contests, as well as which party will control each chamber in January 2027. The figures provide a look at how traders view the races—and where their expectations differ.
One contrast appears in the Senate contests in Maine and Michigan. In Maine, traders from outside the state have put 61% of their money on Democrat Troy Jackson, compared with 36% among in-state traders. In Michigan, the corresponding figures for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed are 65% and 49%. In both states, local traders have put a smaller share of their money on the Democratic candidate than traders elsewhere have.
Kalshi introduced its Midterms Hub in July. It brings together market odds, polling averages, fundraising figures, past election results and political news for House, Senate and governor races.
The data also varies by industry. Law enforcement traders showed the strongest Republican tilt, with 67.9% of their money backing Republicans. Arts and entertainment traders leaned most toward Democrats, at 60.1%.
Traders in mining, energy and chemicals put 62.6% of their money on Republicans, while those in education put 58.3% on Democrats. Legal services and electronics traders were close to evenly divided.
These figures reflect where traders think races may end up. They don’t necessarily show which party those traders support or how people in those industries intend to vote.
With control of Congress at stake, the markets may continue to shift as new developments emerge in the final weeks of the midterm campaigns.
