The debate over California’s proposed billionaire tax is heating up as voters prepare to decide on a one-time 5% tax on the wealthiest residents. Recent polling data from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, in collaboration with the Los Angeles Times, shows Proposition 40 has a narrow lead, with 45% of likely voters in favor and 42% opposed, while 13% remain undecided.
This reflects a shift from just six weeks ago, when support stood at 48% and opposition at 41%. The change seems to coincide with a robust advertising campaign surrounding the proposition, which is becoming one of the focal points on the state’s crowded ballot for the November 3 elections.
The proposal calls for a one-time tax based on the net worth of billionaires who were California residents as of January 1, 2026. The revenue aims to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance, especially given anticipated federal funding reductions.
However, the tax has faced significant resistance, and opponents are heavily funding their campaigns against it. According to Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, there’s a clear concern among voters about economic inequality, but there’s also hesitation regarding this new tax approach, which targets assets rather than just income. He noted that the idea of taxing wealth is unfamiliar and somewhat risky, leading to a cautious stance among voters.
One businessman has gone as far as to suggest that if the measure passes, it could cause wealthy individuals to flee California. Eric Schiffer, CEO of Reputation Management Consultants, mentioned that the tax could result in a significant loss of entrepreneurs and affluent residents, making the state less appealing for those who have worked hard to build their wealth.
Meanwhile, the dynamics of the ballot are further complicated by two other propositions that could impact the billionaire tax. Proposition 42, which intends to limit certain personal property taxes and retroactive taxation, has garnered 43% support, while Proposition 41 presents a more divided front, with 37% in favor and 33% opposed.
Interestingly, Proposition 3, which seeks to extend an existing tax on high earners—an income tax increase approved in 2012 currently set to expire in 2031—has received relatively more support. This tax affects individuals making at least $360,000 per year, and its stronger backing suggests voters are differentiating between extending a tax versus implementing a new one on billionaire wealth.
The California Democratic Party supports Proposition 40, although Governor Gavin Newsom has expressed opposition due to concerns over its possible long-term effects on the state’s finances. The political landscape surrounding this tax measure is indicative of broader divisions within the Democratic Party itself.
