Experts told Fox News Digital that a war between Iran and Israel would likely result in intense fighting that would keep regional forces away and would not be in the interests of anyone in the region.
“Frankly, Arab states don’t want to take sides in this conflict,” explained Matt MacInnis, a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. “They could inevitably get caught up in it, and I think that’s one of the things that Iran is very concerned about.”
”[Iran is] It remains to be seen whether Israel’s efforts over the past few years to strengthen diplomatic and security ties with countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait will be enough to keep these countries out of larger conflicts. I’m not sure,” McInnis added.
“Bases in these countries and others are obviously very complex in the context of increasingly large-scale conflicts as part of their support and defense of Israel,” MacInnis explained. “On the Iranian side, I think the Syrians will certainly side with Iran, but I don’t know what kind of material support will be provided other than potentially allowing Iran to use Syrian territory for attacks. I don’t know.”
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The Iranian government continues to threaten action against Israel after seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals, were killed in an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Gen. Michael Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, is visiting Israel and met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Friday to assess military readiness and bring forward plans in response to threats from Iran, the Pentagon said. Spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed this at a press conference. Thursday’s press conference.
On Wednesday, November 1, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei attended a meeting with a group of students in Tehran, Iran. (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, via AP)
John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the U.S. National Security Council, told reporters Friday that the U.S. is in “constant communication” with Israel’s partners to ensure Israel is ready for an attack. , stated that he “refused to sit in the quarterback chair in public” regarding the conversation. What we have or what we’re seeing in our intelligence work. ”
Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said media hype and tensions, and even a “mild panic” within Israel about so-called Iranians, I commented that it was causing this. Retaliation against Israel after last week’s attack on Damascus.
He said on FDD’s “Morning Brief” podcast that Iran has many options, but “I have very strong faith in Iran’s strategic patience.”
“They are disciplined, long-term thinkers, and they don’t make rash decisions based on emotion…even if the rhetoric is sophisticated,” Conrics said.
“We know it would be unwise for Iran to attack Israel. Then the turmoil in Gaza and Lebanon would be a forgotten issue and everything would be tied to Iran and its hostile and negative activities in the Middle East. They will be the center of attention for themselves in Israel and perhaps in the United States, and the Iranians don’t want that.” “They don’t want that because it would focus on the nuclear program and take pressure off Israel from fighting in Gaza and Lebanon.”
During an appearance on Friday’s episode of “Fox & Friends,” Gen. Jack Keene, head of the Institute for the Study of War (IFSW), said Iran “cannot avoid the international reputation surrounding its occupation.” He said an attack would take place at some point. Syria’s Revolutionary Guards Headquarters said this was “just a reality,” but added that Iran was likely to pursue a “cautious response” and had no real desire for escalation.
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Keene suggested that the best way to deal with Iran is to destroy Revolutionary Guard assets in Iran, saying that “Iran doesn’t want escalation” and that Iran “has a weak air force and They also claimed that they were “weak” and “not particularly well trained or…enough”. Instead, he argued, Iran relies heavily on drones and missile weapons.
“Iran knows that a war with Iran will economically destroy its regime, and it will probably lose it,” Keene argued. “That influence has always been on the side of Israel, the United States and the West, and we absolutely refuse to use that influence.”
Mr. MacInnis agreed with Mr. Keene’s assessment, but argued that it would depend largely on what form the conflict would take. In his estimation, Iran could gain some benefits from integrating Revolutionary Guard personnel with proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah in small, manpower-driven engagements.
Schumer and the U.S. delegation also met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Senator Chuck Schumer/X)
“Once we get to that point, some of the smaller operations on the ground, I think the Iranians will be in better shape than they were decades ago,” MacInnis said.
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“But that’s the truth about long-term all-out war, and I don’t really foresee that…I think that’s a fair criticism,” he continued. “They’ve definitely improved in their ability to coordinate very sophisticated drone cruise and ballistic missile actions, and if you look at Saudi Arabia’s classic actions in 2019, [which] This was kind of the beginning of an era where we had much more sophisticated capabilities combined with what Hezbollah in Lebanon was capable of. ”
“Both Iran and Israel are concerned that this will be a ground war similar to, or in some way inspired by, the October 7th attack on Hamas, combining not just missiles and drones but also ground operations,” he said. I think that’s what I’m most concerned about.”
An explosion occurs on the Israel-Gaza border, causing thick smoke to rise (photographed from Sderot). (Ilia Efimovich/Photo in partnership with Getty Images)
“I think this is something that Israelis and Iranians in particular are concerned about, whether we are in southern Lebanon or even in northern Israel, where we are struggling to continue as another conflict as a kind of flashpoint. “We could end up in that kind of conflict,” he added. “This is where the capabilities of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, along with the Revolutionary Guards, remain a pretty serious possibility for Israel’s security.” I think.”
Bill Roggio, Founder and Editor of the Long War Journal He emphasized that the government is dependent on representative organizations.
“I think one of the misconceptions is that Iran and Israel are already at war. It’s just Iran fighting a war through its proxies. Israel is already under attack from Iranian proxies. But they could be escalating further, right?” Roggio said. “So, at a bare minimum, these are Iran’s closest allies in the region, and they do wield a lot of power. In particular, their proxy in Iraq, Lebanon, is essentially running things.”
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“Saudi Arabia has shown that it does not really want to be a frontline state,” Roggio added. “They have experienced drone attacks by Iran, and given Israel’s position in Gaza, they do not expect Egypt or other Arab countries to side with Israel.”
Roggio also pointed out that Russia and China have vested political and diplomatic interests in Iran, and last year invited Iran to join the BRICS economic bloc. He emphasized that ties between the three countries were “tightening” and that Iran and China could provide support aimed at continuing to “escalate” the conflict, but he said He argued that it is unclear how this will be achieved.
